Survivability in Malaysia

 To navigate Malaysia's challenging economic landscape—marked by **rising inflation** (projected 2%-3.5% in 2025), **subsidy rationalization** (especially RON95 fuel), and **expanded taxes** (e.g., Sales and Service Tax/SST revisions)—proactive financial adjustments are essential. Based on current policies and economic trends, here’s a structured survival guide:

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### 🛠️ **1. Optimize Budgeting & Spending**

- **Prioritize Essentials**: Focus spending on needs exempt from new SST hikes (e.g., basic foods, healthcare). Reduce non-essential purchases like luxury imports (salmon, avocados) and discretionary services (beauty, private healthcare) now taxed at 5–10%.  

- **Leverage Government Aid**: Apply for **Budi Madani** (fuel subsidies) and **Sumbangan Tunai Rahmah** (cash aid). Budget 2025 increased direct assistance to RM13 billion for 9 million low-income Malaysians.  

- **Energy Efficiency**: Offset fuel subsidy cuts by using public transport, carpooling, or switching to electric vehicles (EVs), which qualify for tax relief.  

*Table: Key Expense Adjustments*  

| **Category**          | **Action Item**                                                                 | **Potential Savings**              |  

|------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------|  

| **Food**               | Buy untaxed staples (rice, vegetables); avoid SST-hit imports                  | 10–20% monthly grocery bill       |  

| **Transport**          | Use public transit; monitor targeted RON95 subsidies (mid-2025 rollout)        | RM100–300/month if eligible       |  

| **Utilities**          | Reduce electricity/water usage; phased subsidies exclude high-income households| 5–15% on bills                    |  

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### 💼 **2. Boost Income & Employment**  

- **Negotiate Wages**: The **minimum wage rises to RM1,700/month** (Feb 2025). If eligible, request raises aligned with this benchmark.  

- **Upskill Strategically**: Pursue training in sectors with tax incentives (e.g., green tech, AI, vocational skills). Tax deductions exist for employers hiring women returnees or sponsoring tech upgrades.  

- **Side Hustles**: Explore freelance/digital nomad roles benefiting from new tax compliance simplifications. Export-oriented sectors (e.g., electronics) face tariff risks, so prioritize locally resilient gigs (e.g., tutoring, repair services).  

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### 📊 **3. Tax Mitigation Tactics**  

- **Maximize Reliefs**: Use expanded deductions:  

  - **Housing**: Up to RM7,000 interest relief for first-time buyers (properties <RM500K).  

  - **Family Care**: Child/eldercare allowances (newly extended to grandparents).  

  - **Green Spending**: EV purchases, solar panel installations.  

- **Restructure Investments**: Dividend taxes (2% above RM100,000) exempt foreign-sourced income. Shift portfolios to tax-free options (e.g., pioneer-status companies).  

- **SST Compliance**: For microbusinesses, register for SST to claim input tax credits. Penalty waivers apply until Dec 2025 for new registrants.  

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### 🏦 **4. Long-Term Financial Resilience**  

- **Emergency Fund**: Aim for 3–6 months of living expenses. Inflation may spike post-subsidy cuts (e.g., RON95 reform could raise transport costs).  

- **Debt Management**: Avoid high-interest loans. Rising OPR (currently 3%) may increase borrowing costs in 2026 if inflation rebounds.  

- **Invest in Inflation-Hedges**: Consider assets like:  

  - **Real Estate**: REITs with exposure to logistics/healthcare (tax-efficient).  

  - **Dividend Stocks**: Banks (e.g., Public Bank, 6% yield) benefit from steady rates.  

  - **Commodities**: Gold/agricultural commodities to hedge against ringgit volatility.  

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### 🤝 **5. Leverage Community & Policy Resources**  

- **Community Support**: Access food banks, cooperatives, or shared-services networks to pool costs (e.g., bulk buying).  

- **Government Programs**: Monitor **Progressive Wage Policy** (2025) for career advancement paths and **MySIP internships** (tax-deductible for employers).  

- **Disaster Preparedness**: Annual floods cost RM6 billion. Ensure insurance covers climate risks; use government flood aid if affected.  

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### 💎 **Key Takeaways**  

Malaysia’s reforms are **necessary but painful**. Success depends on:  

1. **Adapting early** to subsidy targeting (e.g., verify RON95 eligibility).  

2. **Exploiting tax reliefs**—e.g., RM2.4 billion allocated for green tech incentives.  

3. **Diversifying income** beyond trade-vulnerable sectors (semiconductors, palm oil).  

> ⚠️ **Monitor Risks**: U.S. tariffs (24% proposed), oil price swings (<USD75/barrel squeezes Petronas dividends), and political shifts could worsen conditions. Stay informed via MOF/Customs channels.  

**First Steps Today**:  

- Audit expenses using apps like **MySejahtera** (integrated with subsidy schemes).  

- Apply for **Budi Madani** if fuel costs >15% of income.  

- Consult a **tax advisor** for personalized relief planning.  

By combining fiscal discipline with strategic use of state resources, households can not only survive but position for recovery as Malaysia navigates this transition.

Malaysia survivability.

 Malaysia's ability to sustain its welfare state amid subsidy cuts, tax reforms, and persistent governance challenges involves complex trade-offs. Based on current policies and structural issues, here is a systematic analysis:

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### ⚖️ **1. Welfare Commitments vs. Fiscal Reforms**

- **Targeted Subsidy Rationalization**:  

  Malaysia has phased out blanket subsidies (diesel, electricity, chicken) in favor of targeted programs like **Budi Madani** and **Sumbangan Tunai Rahmah**, saving billions for welfare redirection. Fuel subsidy reforms for RON95 (mid-2025) aim to exempt 85% of citizens while cutting costs by **RM8 billion annually** .  

- **Social Spending Increases**:  

  Despite subsidy cuts, welfare allocations remain robust: **RM13 billion** for direct cash aid in 2025 and a higher minimum wage (**RM1,700/month**) to offset inflation .  

- **Tax Base Expansion**:  

  New taxes on luxury goods (5–10%), sugary beverages, and expanded Sales and Service Tax (SST) are projected to boost revenue by **5.5% in 2025**. However, reliance on Petronas dividends (**RM32 billion**) persists .

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### 📉 **2. Fiscal Imprudence Risks**  

- **Deficit Reduction vs. Debt Burden**:  

  The fiscal deficit narrowed from **5.5% (2022) to 3.8% (2025)**, but government debt remains high (**62.6% of GDP, Q1 2025**). Debt servicing costs consume **16.1% of revenue** (2025), straining welfare budgets .  

- **Operating Expenditure Dominance**:  

  **80% of the 2025 budget (RM335 billion)** funds operating costs (e.g., civil servant wages), leaving only **RM86 billion** for development. Wage hikes for 1.6 million civil servants may crowd out welfare investments .  

- **Oil Dependency**:  

  Declining oil prices threaten revenue, yet broad-based consumption taxes (like GST) remain unaddressed, creating fiscal vulnerability .

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### 🕵️ **3. Corruption and Governance Gaps**  

- **Resource Leakage**:  

  Studies show patronage systems enable **subsidy diversion** to elites, with **20–30% of welfare funds** misallocated. This undermines poverty programs and worsens inequality .  

- **Institutional Reforms**:  

  Initiatives like the **Public Finance and Fiscal Responsibility Act (2023)** and anti-corruption task forces aim to enhance transparency. However, centralized political control weakens oversight, allowing **"selective implementation"** of welfare policies .

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### 📊 **Comparative Fiscal and Welfare Metrics (2023–2025)**

| **Indicator**               | **2023**      | **2024**      | **2025 (Projected)** |  

|-----------------------------|---------------|---------------|----------------------|  

| Fiscal Deficit (% GDP)      | 5.0%          | 4.3%          | 3.8%                |  

| Govt Debt (% GDP)           | 64.3%         | 64.6%         | 64.2%               |  

| Subsidy/Social Aid Spending | RM81 billion  | RM61.4 billion| RM52.6 billion      |  

| Debt Service/Revenue Ratio  | 15.8%         | 16.1%         | >16%                |  

| Social Assistance           | RM10 billion  | RM12 billion  | RM13 billion        |  

*Source: *

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### 🔮 **4. Survival Prospects: Conditions and Risks**  

- **✅ Sustainable If**:  

  - Tax reforms **diversify revenue** beyond oil/GLCs.  

  - Targeted subsidies **protect vulnerable groups** (e.g., BR1M recipients).  

  - Anti-corruption measures **reduce leakage** by ≥15%.  

- **❌ Crisis Triggers**:  

  - Global oil prices **below USD75/barrel**, forcing austerity.  

  - **Debt servicing** exceeding 20% of revenue.  

  - **Political resistance** to subsidy cuts inciting unrest .

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### 💎 **Conclusion: A Fragile Balancing Act**  

Malaysia's welfare model hinges on **executing reforms without fiscal or governance failures**. While subsidy rationalization and tax expansion fund welfare, **corruption and debt inertia** remain existential threats. Success requires:  

1. **Institutional credibility** to ensure efficient welfare delivery.  

2. **Broad-based taxation** (e.g., GST revival) to replace volatile oil income.  

3. **Strict debt ceilings** to free resources for social spending.  

Without these, even robust growth (**5.1% in 2024**) cannot prevent welfare erosion . The next 3–5 years will determine whether Malaysia can reconcile its welfare aspirations with fiscal reality.

Beginning of a new Era: The rise of China dragon and fall of Uncle Sam.

 US is buyer, China is seller. So, US will buy from other country with a higher price to replace China. China will sell to other country at lower price to replace US. So, the world profit and the loser is US and China. How long can US dollar that is akin to toilet paper survive in this market of increasing price and inflation. US dollar will demise soon. How long will the world be affluent to a debaucy currency that is of no face value. 

Adam Smith coin it that a thing is worth, how much a buyer willing to pay. 

China can still sell to Asean, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, South America, South Asia and Oceania and also russian. Chinese people will need to be more creative to replace US and it is timely that China be independent and stand on its own 2 feet rather than kowtow to US hagemony and life dictated by Emperor Trump.

In economy, there is a theory call invincible hands. In this case, the invincible hands will bleed US dollar to oblivion. Gold and silver will be testament of US dollar failure. While, bringing China to be more productive, creative and most importantly more resilient to end times.

Moral of the story: Every 500 years the power of the world shift from east to west and vice versa.

When 2 superpower fight are we ready to collect the spoilt?

Investment from a Doctor's Perspectives

 If you give a Doctor a technical chart, he would said it is an ECG reading. That is why Doctors is known as the worse investor. 

So, if a Doctor would diagnose the health of the stock market. He would have to see the symptoms and signs of the stock market.

Symptoms is what the patient's complain and signs is what the Doctor illicit or found out. 

The symptoms would be world and local news whether it is an act of God, big brothers' action or corporate announcement of individual stock as well as news and actions taken by competitive and complementary competitors in the industry. 

The sign would be volume-price action at international macro and local macro as well as microeconomics of individual  stock or commodity.

So, if the symptoms and sign shows uptrend or bull. We should increase our investment and buy high, sell higher. 

If they show downtrend or bearish, we should decrease our investment and sell low, buy lower. 

Both ways we make as long as we preserve our capital and winning and let it compounded.

Just remember, if we lose and our portfolio enter ICU or casualty ward just stop digging and remember to live and fight another day at another more favorable set of economic conditions. 

Stock market is the world's most cruel game. The stock market does not care whether you make or lose as the stock market have a life of it's own. 

Stock market is the fastest route to untold richest or the poor coop house as millions were won or lose in the stock market in the past and it will exist for many more years as long as capitalism exist. 

Moral of the story: Faith favored those who are prepare.

In God we trust, 

Dr. Lion

A fictional memoirs of a Day Trader

 The following is a fictional story from the memoirs of a day trader in bursa malaysia. 

Let us go back to the year 1996. The stock market boom in bursa with the second board counter reaching new high. We had stock such as Repco and Hwatai that reach 200  and 180 ringgit per share respectively. 

Everyone was joyous, cheerful and many millionaire was make overnight.

Alas, good time never last forever. In 1998, repco was last traded at 2 ringgit and Hwa Tai drop to 80 cents per share. If the king of stock drop up to 98 percent of its value what about the rest of the stock in second board?

There is total wipeout for stock participants and many speculator and pools suffered from bankruptcy. 

If you think this is the worse? Forward another 10 years to 2008. Share such as mkland drop from 4 ringgit to 10 cents. Still another 98 percent wipeout.

Is this the worse? No. Forward to 2020 during the covid crisis in March 2020, alot of mesdaq counter such as Fintech and Asiaply drop from 50 cents to 1 cents and share such as Puncak drop from 4 ringgit to 10 cents. Nearly another 98 percent wipeout.

So, how can we withstand a 98 percent wipeout every decade?

A 98 percent wipeout means a million invested in the stock market will be worth only twenty thousands. 

Share market is the fastest way to be millionaire or billionaire. However, it is a double edge sword, either you become rich or end in the poor coop house especially those who rely on tips. The end game for a failed speculator is either bankruptcy or suicide. 

Just ask any stock investor in 1998s, 2008s or 2020s, most of them would have retire from the stock market. 

Speculation in the stock market is akin to gambling and speculation or gambling is never safe or foolproof. 

Every once or then there is a killer wave that flush out or dried up every drop of blood that the punters have. If you want to see flushing, you can try trading in the forex and derivatives market. 

Honestly, if you take care of your losses your winning will take care of itself. 

I hope to be proven wrong, however history tend to repeat itself. Therefore, it is better to be safe than sorry when we speculate with our hard earn money.

Moral of the story: Gambling or Speculating is never safe as it is always better to be ten years earlier than one day late preparing our ark in this uncertain times. 

May your trading life be producrive. 

God bless you, 

Dr. Lion. 

Allocating our Finite resources to the test of times.

 Since time immemorial mans have unlimited needs and wants. This makes us desire for everything. However, our desire is limited by the amount of finite cash we have. Therefore, we should allocate our limited cash to fulfill our needs and wants at the optimum level and overcome the opportunity cost involve. Opportunity cost here would mean the loss of opportunity on other asset class as we allocate to one particular asset class. 

I would like to suggest an asset allocation that can withstand the test of time whether it is boom, bust, depression or disaster that will be able to grow with time and conservative in nature as well. Just remember that the dark days are many. 

Therefore, i would allocate my asset class as follows:

1. House and Lands and cash which include insurance policy, foreign cash and retirement saving 30 percent.

2. Stock, bonds and derivatives 30 percent

3. Cars and Collectible 20 percent

4. Gold and Precious metal 10 percent. 

5. Crypto 10 percent

This would make sure that we can withstands the ups and downs of the economy and rebalance our asset class as one asset class outperform the other or when one asset class underperform.

It is better to be ten years early than one day late.

Moral of the story: Fate favors those who are prepared and Murphy law state that calamity that we are prepared for in advance will not come to fruition.

Teach a wiseman and he will be wiser. 

In God we trust, 

Dr. Lion. 

Developing a vibrant country from scratch.

 Say I am the President of Timbaktu or Pulau Belakang mati, a country which is getting out from stoneage. 

How, can i develop my country if i had to start rebuilding my country from stoneage? 

First of all, in order to develop a strong and vibrant country i must have good governance and justice to be the bedrock principle for my country. This is because we cannot break good principle but break ourself going against good principle in life. Those who are good and productive need to be rewarded and those who are lazy or corrupted need to be censored. This would make my country more productive and treasure good value which is godly in nature.

Why must we eradicate corruption? Corruption is worse than the nuclear disaster in hiroshima and nagasaki which ended WW2. Great thinker in an African University had always believe that if you wanted to destroy a country or civilization, you can do it by allowing their students to cheat in exam, lower the passing marks and instill negative value such as corruption. 

As these children grow up they will be corrupted lawyers, corrupted doctors, corrupted engineer, corrupted police and corrupted army. As a result they country legislation is not trustworthy, the doctor is not passionate in his work nor effective, the engineer will build tofu building that can collapse any time, the police and army will be asking for bribe and put their personal interest above the needs to serve the country and all the citizens will only serve self interest. Just imagine whether this scenario is worse than a nuclear disaster that befall hiroshima and nagasaki?

So we need to stem corruption at the bud as the saying goes the fish is rotten at the head. 

Corruption and opium is the cause of the fall of the Chinese Emperor in the Qing dynasty and many other civilization worldwide. If the mighty Chinese Emperor can fall what about my small country in Timbaktu or Pulau Belakang mati?

Furthermore, we need to educate our young generation on good principles and moral values in life as well as creating a judical system that has good corporate governance and stem corruption at its core and at all level of society. Currently, China and Indonesia had strict laws that will execute anyone, that is found to be corrupted after a fair trial in court, be it billionaires, police chiefs, armies or even politicians. So with good governance, the justice system will make sure that everyone is equal in the eye of the law. There must also be division and independence in legislation, executive and judiciary. 

After good governance, what we need is a productive society. We should encourage productivity by rewarding more the productive group in society and encourage the non productive part of society to be productive. China recently have encorage more of their urban dwellers to go to third or fourth urban city to develop modern farming and rewarding those who are willing to work and relocate with higher renumeration that is three or four times higher than the basic income. This policy would encourage people to be more productive and competitive in nature to develop modern farming in their beloved country. 

Next, is to eradicate poverty and to increase the GDP of my country. GDP is refer to the amount of goods or service that my country produce in a year. 

How do we eradicate poverty? In order to eradicate poverty we must make sure our young generation treasure hardwork and success. Success does not come before hardwork even in the dictionary. We should creat productivity month, slogan and seminar. The Indonesian president, Jokowi understand this and he united Indonesian under the slogan "Mari kita kerja" and Indonesia is now setting the tone to be the fourth largest economy in the world. 

If all the strata of society is hardworking, productivity will increase and the GDP per capita will increase and as a result the socio economic and well being of the country will improve as more of the citizens will be free from poverty and out of the rat race.

The best advice that a mother can give to her children is to work hard all their life. In life if you do more than what you are paid for in life, you will be rewarded handsomely as coined by motivational Guru Napoleon Hill. 

You can ask any one that is freed from the bondage of poverty or achieve financial freedom, which is more alluring or motivated? Handouts or financial freedom from poverty due to hardwork on his or her own efforts?

Like the saying goes if you give a man a fish, you will feed him for a day. If you teach him, how to fish, you will feed him for a lifetime.

Lastly, in order to bring my country into a develop status. I need to bring development to my stoneage country. How to do that? I need to build big ticket items with priority on projects that have high impact on the economy, environment or society well being. I need to differentiate between good debts and bad debts. Good debts are debt that bring in more income and bad debts is the one that leads to leakage or money outflow. In this modern world, connectivity is time saving and time is money. I will build high class internet be it 5G or 6G. Those with higher speed can creat better infrastructure for Internet of Thing and the 4th industrial revolution. Next, connectivity is via highways to connect my strategic towns to ports. A better infrastructure nationwide include better railway tract such as high speed train, better airport and port that can handle bigger tanker such as afromax tanker will help to ease business and shorten my time to transport my goods nationwide as well as worldwide. China's belts and roads initiative to connect country worldwide by building massive infrastructure to creat the new silk route is to be applauded here. This should be follow by development and massive investment in R&D and training. 

Furthermore, why is development important? This is because if we have connectivity, commerce will improve and we will have multiplier effect in our economy. Why is this so? Say we develop highways for our country with a cost of 1 million. The spillover effect is more than 1 million as when the contractor gain more contract, they will hire more worker, worker would than use their income to consume more goods and service and the spillover effect of consumption can reach multiple time my initial 1 million as illustrated by the following examples. When a worker buy food, the food vendors can buy raw materials from the market, the market wholesellers can buy clothes and the clothes' shopkeeper can buy cars and the car dealer can go on holiday making the GDP multiply multiple of time. This is because the demand side of the economy does not only depends on money, M but also on the velocity of money, V. When the GDP increase the main beneficial is the government as the government owns the golden share in all business through a 28 percent taxation. Leading to multiplier effect in economy. Everyone will feel rich and there will be feel good factors spreading throughout the country. 

If i were to do the opposite and tax exorbitantly, i will have a lot of tax income initially but soon the tax income will reduce with time as people will be reluctant to spend nor work hard and the rich will migrate to better country. Japan suffer from stagnation in GDP and stagflation because high tax and high cost of foods and houses make Japan's citizen thrifty and compulsive to saving. This reduce the velocity of money and leads to lower productivity and GDP collectively. As a result, there will be lower tax overtime as in Japan since the 1990s. In the computer stimulation game Sim city if you increase tax rate your income over time will drop as people will migrate to other destination that is more conducive for business and support them and their family well-being. 

When my revenue grow, i can then do more welfare program and CSR as there will be more contribution from my government and other stakeholders be it businessman, Ngos, public organization or governmental bodies working in unison and harmony to achieve the ultimate goals of nation building. 

Sooner or later, with the Grace of God my country can achieve a developed country status as i have set the right guarding principle or compass for my country and fulfill my duty as the president or CEO of my tiny country of Timbaktu or Pulau Belakang mati. 

Moral of the story: You cannot break good principles in life but you can break yourself if you go against good principles in life.

In God we trust. 

God bless you, 

Dr. Lion.