The Doom Country

 If you want to find a recipe of a doom country, look at it's people.

If a country workforce is unproductive. Then the country is destiny to fail as the youth and the younger generation will be a burden to the country rather than a blessing. The GDP per capita of the country will be lower than the maximum output achieveable. 

Worse still if the income per capita of the country is more than the GDP per capita, making it non-productive and non competitive in the world standard and investor will prefer to invest in more competitive country that offer more return to investment. 

If the debt per capita is more than income per capita than the debt become non serviceable and the country will be burden by debt, whereby the country resource that should be invest to generate more income is use to service the debt. 

Worse still is the debt multiply more and more to support corruptible leader and creating a welfare state making the productive unproductive and the unproductive a burden to the country. 

In economy, there is no free lunch, when someone get it for free someone have to pay for it. Corruption and welfare state is like robbing from the future generation for one's prosperity or for current spending. 

When the debt is too massive then the government will succumb to printing massive amount of money to get out from the debt trap leading to hyperinflation. 

The Loser in hyperinflation will be the saver, the pension fund and pensioner who have to live with worthless papernotes. 

Moral of the story: You cannot break good principles in life but break yourself going against good principle in your life. First of all manage well your debt, so that your debt is less than income and your income per capita is less than your GDP per capita to make you competitive by the world standard. 

God bless you, 

Dr. Lion. 

What is the magic number to conquer inflation

 Say, we are currently 45 years old and we might live for another 40 years. How much money must we have to maintain our status quo for the next 40 years.

On overage, we will need at least 2k per month to survive in malaysia and we put in mind that inflation will double every 10 years. 

Our needs for the first 10 years will be

Rm 2000 x 12m x 10y = 240k

In the 2nd 10 years will be

Rm 2000 x 12m x 10y x 2 = 480k

In the 3rd 10 years will be

Rm 2000 x 12m x 10y x 4 = 960k

In the 4th 10 years will be

Rm 2000 x 12m x 10y x 8 = 1920k

In short over the 40 years, we will need

Rm 2000 x 12m x 10y x (1+2+4+8) = 3600k to maintain our status quo in 40 years time. 

However, Thank God inflation does not increase in linear fashion as water, electricity, phone bills and insurance is not subjected to inflation rate as much as food and medicine. 

Therefore, we need to itemised inflation rate for each individual item and we will need a much lower amount of money than 3.6 million to maintain our status quo in the next 40 years.

We can roughly divide our source of income for the following 4 decade:

1.First decade from our daily job. 

2.Second decade from our pension or EPF. 

3.Third decade from our investment and insurance. 

4.Fourth decade from our property.

The biggest misery in human nature is fear of the unknown. 

Hence, we can creat a plan to overcome inflation and live a bless life. If we fail to plan, we plan to fail.

May God's blessings be with you always. 

Everything is possible through God who loves us, 

Dr. Lion. 

Effect of Consistent Compounding on the lifetime return of investors.

 Say, we have 3 brothers Joshua, Buffet and Soros who are investor and would invest over the horizon of 40 years. 

All three of them have just inherited 1 million from their grandfather recently. 

Joshua is a stock investor and hope to gain a consistent average profit of 10 percent per  year over his lifetime. At 10 percent return per year, his 1 million will become 64 millions in 42 years of investment.

Buffet on the other hand is more selective in his investment and only invest in high grade stock with average consistent annual return of 20 percent. His 1 million will become 4 billion in 42 years of investment. 

Soros on the other hand is a speculator and he speculate on high risk stock with average consistent annual return of 40 percent. His 1 million will become 4 trillion in 42 years of investment.

This show the magic of compounding on the lives of 3 types of investor. Which investor are you? Joshua? Buffet? or Soros? 

Moral of the story is If you take care of your losses the profit will take care of itself. 

God bless, 

Dr. Lion. 

Effect of First Nuclear Strike on Financial Market

 If there is a first nuclear strike by any nuclear nation.

The financial market will collapse making all strong fundamental stock and derivatives market to be worthless. 

However, grab, ground, gasoline, gold, gun, gourd and guard will be in high demand worldwide as food, lodging, medicine and safety become the top priority.

The world wide web will be down due to hacking and loss of infrastructure such as destroy of underwater cable. 

Therefore, crypto, banking transaction and share trading will only be available if there is internet. 

If there is no internet, we can only rely on physical asset to survive such as food, toiletries, fire equipments, camping set, cash and gold to survive on barter trade.

The world might enter anarchy and we must find a hideout for us to survive the short term due to nuclear fallout or lawless state.

These are all early sign of tribulations. 

Better be 20 years early than 1 day late. 

God bless, 

Dr. Lion. 

Everything Collapse Environment AKA 1929 Great Depression

 If Everything Collapse Environment come where can we hide.

Say, the Collapse started in the financial market. 100 Trillion is wipe out from the market whether it is stock, bond or repo. This would create a black hole in financial market that will suck the life of all the asset class in the world.

Whether it is metal market, commodity, housing, forex market or crypto market.

All and everyone will be akin to the acronym die standing especially those who are highly geared, on margin and highly on debt unless you are on the right side of the equation.

So, how do you prepare for it?

By making sure, we have a roof above our house, food on our table from our own garden, solar panel in our house, water source nearby and a support group nearby.

Furthermore, if we profit from the financial market we need to move and diversify our asset class to secondary asset class that is less volatile that are able to withstand the test of time such as grab, gasoline, ground, gold, gourd and guardian to withstand the coming everything Collapse Environment.

It is better to be 20 years early than 1 day late as the everything Collapse Environment can come from sun annihilation, alien attack, US dollar Collapse, nuclear fallout, World War, act of God or financial Collapse.

Murphy Law says that things that we are prepare for will not usually come to pass.

I hope to be proven wrong that the Great Depression 1929 does not repeat itself but history did repeat itself.

Moral of the story: Fear God, Follow his commandments and he will straighten our paths.

God's Mercy endures forever,

Dr. Lion.

Which type of trader are you? Speculation vs Investing in the market.

 Say, we have two brothers that is keen on investment. One of them is Speculative Kim and the other one is Investor Buffet.

The world is divided into multipolar and not unipolar, so i cannot say one method of investment is better than another.

Let us see how Kim's makes money. Kim buy on rumors and sell on facts. He was not interested in the fundamental of the company, he was more interested in daily profit as he believe the technical of the stock is more important than the fundamental in spoting which stock is favorite by operator. He believe that playing stock is like earning daily income as he is not patience to wait for a undervalue stock to bear fruit as he believes in the long term everyone is dead. He wants his money and he wants it now. He would make sure that technical will help him ride up the way up and ride down the wave via long and short position respectively. He does not believe in building wealth, he trusted no one except for his technical skills.

Buffet, on the other hand is an investor and he believe that if he buy dollar for penny he will have big margin of safety and he can profit when the stone that he bought become polished diamond. He does not believe in the hype by the public, he based his decision on cold fundamental facts before making his decision to purchase a stock as stock in the short term is a voting machine and in the long term is a weighing machine.

Both ways can make money but you must make sure which way suit you best, whether you are a speculator or investor as both can suffer serious consequence too as we cannot break the golden rule of investing but we break ourself going against the golden principle and the higher the risk, higher will be the gain. 

A speculator must be a master of technical to buy before the syndycate and sell before the syndycate as they believe stock chart never lies. A speculator will perish if they never look out for danger sign and live to fight another day. He is at the mercy of the syndycate such as cfm, hongseng, tawin, asiaply as current reference in bursa. 

An investor must be a master of fundamental in making sure that the thing that he buy is good from the start. If he bought a stock that turns out to be a can of worms rather than unpolished diamond he will have the fastest way to the coop or the poor house. He is at the mercy of how accurate his current fundamental information and whether the stock that he buy can withstand the test of time like kodak, xerox, nokia and blackberry that go bust when demand is not there anymore, worse still he is subjected to false information such as what happen to Enron, Bear stern and Credit suisse.

If you realized that you are a speculator and end up as an investor you have failed and will be keeping some unpopolar unsold stock in the closet with massive losses or if you are an investor and you tried to trade for a profit daily, you will be selling what you needs to buy something you don't need and will not have the time for your profitable stock to run their full course. 

The most profitable investment of the century is to understand your character and temperament as a speculator or as an investor and learn to overcome the risks and setback for a particular class of trading or investment as the saying goes a good stock is the one that you make money and a bad stock is the one that you lose money.

Bless is the one that understands his own personality. 

Moral of the story: Every one greatest enemy is his emotional makeup.

Have a bless day ahead, 

Dr. Lion. 

Ugly Nemesis of Inflation on retirement

Price of a bowl of mee is 20 cents in 1950s and by 1990s it have risen to 2 ringgit. Basically it rise by 10x in the span of 40 years or 8x in the span of 32 years. 3 doubling cycle in the span of 32 years or more exact double every 11 years from our illustrations. 

History have proven that price of Goods will double every 8 to 12 years on average. 

So, the rate of inflation would by 6 to 9 percent per year.

If we based our assumptions on the best case scenario, food price will double every 12 years and we assume that the rate is linear in fashion and everything remain constant or what we call it in economic ceteris paribus. 

So, if we live for another 50 years from the current year 2023. Inflation would have four cycle of doubling and if we live with a basic income of 2k per month, by the time we reach 2073, we will need 2k x 12 month x 8 times to survive. Basically, we will need 192k per year to survive by then and this does not include medical bills, car bills and house repair. 

If we will to retire in 2023, we will need 2k x 12 months x (1+2+4+8) x 12 year cycle or basically 4.32 million of retirement cash to survive another 50 years without inputing high cost items such as medical bills, car repairs and house repairs.

So, basically those who retire will be soon out of money, making retirement a nightmare as retirement fund have to face a myraid of expenses, together with inflated price in the future.

If you fail to plan for your retirement you plan to fail and this does not include mismanagement of a country economy which can leads to hyperinflation and worthless currency. 

3 things can be consider certain in life which is death, tax and inflation.

Therefore, when we retire we need a passive income or business to supplement our current lifestyle. 

Most importantly, we need to prepare for our afterlife as we are only traveller or visitor on planet Earth. 

Moral of the story: Build treasure on heaven where moth and rust cannot destroy and thieves cannot steal.

Have a Bless Journey in Life, 

Dr. Lion.