Mathemathicians are fooled by randomness

If Maths are really the only pre-requisite to be rich, Maths' Professor with IQ of Alpha, Beta, Kapha should be the richest man on earth.

But, this is not.

Why?

They are fool by randomness.

They pride on their "random walk theory"

In nature, things are a disorder when the sample size is small and only become more predictable if the sample size is big.

That's why predictably does not always work and things always work against the common norm in small sample size.

Even, if something has small finite probability in the past, if it happens, the probability is then 1.

Probability of a past event is 1.

Probability of flapping of wings of a butterfly causing a tornado is small, but if it happens, the past probability is 1.

A small event can change the world and Archimedes sum it best "if I have enough leverage, I can move the world"

Therefore, adaptability to change to surrounding, flexibility and some prayers works wonders.

Warren Buffet was a master of such circumstances.

Warren decided not to go to Boston but to go to University of Nebraska under the tutelage of Benjamin Graham that taught him value investing aka "buying a dollar for a penny."  Graham was master of value investing beyond his time and the main investor in GEICO insurance.

He knows that the best strategy is "to wait for people to drop dollar notes on the floor and he just pick it up" or in other words "fish in trouble waters."

Buffet on the other hand, always profit from others mistakes or exuberant, which make him extremely rich.

Therefore, the truth is human nature is "never random - because emotion is energy in motion and energy is motion is always in disequilibrium making it non-random or predictable"

whereby,

"bull starts in extreme bearishness and bear starts in extreme bullishness."

Buffet always joke "Bull make money, Bear make money, Pig get slaughter."

But, who am i to argue wit the Buffets? Ha Ha.   

"Knowledge and the adaptability with our financial environment and surrendering to our fate as determine by our creator works better than the almighty science per se!"

God bless us!

Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

The main beneficiary and loser in a downturn in economy.

When an economy suffering, wealth changes hands from the unprepared to prepare.

Scenario
1. Stagflation. Profit is the boss. Loss is a worker and saver. Therefore, we must prepare to be our own boss.

2. Deflation. Loss is boss and asset owner as nobody is interested in material goods and is more interested in the preservation of cash as their future cash flow is very uncertain.  Profit is liquid cash owner. The axioms - In the world of the blind, one eye jack is the king. Therefore, we must always have liquid cash in hand.

3. Hyperinflation. Loss is Cash owner. Profit is debtor and farm producer as well as those with a source of income from foreign trade or foreign exchange as well as the precious metals. Therefore, we must have a stake in export-oriented food commodity company or precious metal company.

So, in conclusion, the utopian dream is to be our own boss, flush with various foreign currency and ownership stake in plantation company or precious metal local and abroad to survive all eventuality.

"In God We Trust and Knowledge is Power"

Good luck! Amigo!

Yours sincerely,
Dr. Lion.

Value of an Antique.

If you buy an item. There are inherent 5 different types of value.

1. Nominal or Base value at the cost
2. Junk value at liquidation
3. Artistic value due to artistic or brand name like Versace
4. Gothic or Gems value due to the one of its kind only in existence giving rise to status, clout, prestige and even respect from a senior member of society.
5. Priceless value due to inherited from parents, head of clans or government.

Good luck! Amigo!

Yours sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

Traits of a Successful Business Model

If I were to be a president of a newly created nation and I decided to increase the economic viability of my country. Which criteria should I look into?

Criteria of a successful business:
1. High expertise in the industry
2. Low-cost structure to start and operate
3. High barrier of entry and long patented period
4. Having a clout monopoly....oligopoly with tollgate concepts
5. Few competitors
6. Not affected by external factors
7. Need few workers and allowed factory automation
8. Fulfill safety, humanitarian and OSHA standards.
9. Homegrown advantage
10. Least regulation by higher authority.
11. Contributing to society wellbeing
12. Added value or solving other peoples problems or misery
13. Contributing to greener technology.
14. Broad base customer fan.
15. Well the known brand name
16. Good and pleasant marketing and sales force

Wow! Such a great company if exist in the utopian state is a great boon to mankind.


If you have stumble upon such business. Congratulations! Your cash registra will ring non stop.


"If turn enough pabbles you would find diamond"


Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

The Stages that besieged the collapse of the economy of an empire.

When an empire enters his twilight years. The nation's people will be more materialistic, less productive, enjoying the luxury of life and self-centered.

This leads to the creation of a divided class of society. The "haves" and the "have not" or the rich/poor or the master/slave or more accurately a classical classes society.

The rich are usually the boss and the poor are usually the worker.

The boss will demand more productivity and a higher price for their goods.

While, the worker will demand less job, higher pay and lower price of goods.

However, here the boss controls the financial wealth and the demand and command system in the economy.

Therefore, the boss will usually win in the end. As a result, the price of goods increase and the worker must be more productive or will be replaced and become unemployed.

As a result, stagflation occurred. Stagflation is inflation with a recession and massive unemployment at the same time. This occurred currently in many developed countries especially USA, Euro Zone, and Canada.

After sometime, worker unemployed, no more fund to buy goods, leads to nationwide depression.

When the government, decided to generate fiat money from the magic printing press during the depression, hyperinflation shows his ugly picture.

That's basically, how stagflation leading to deflation and eventually hyperinflation.

"God bless us"

Jolly! Good Luck!


Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

Ultimate Marketing Strategy of New Kid on the Block

What is the ultimate purpose of marketing?

To sell goods to consumers. Therefore a consumer is always king and is always right. Therefore, the best marketer must know the consumer well.

The consumer is a fan of branded products, which give them identity, prestige, belonging, status and solidarity to their fellow friends and family.

Therefore, the consumer is a fan of branded products.

So, u are a less well known and abandon new kid with products that nobody knows. Will they care about your existence? Definitely no. They will see you as a typical nuisance that is after their hard earned money. So, what can you do to market your product to them?

Knowledge and persistence is the only arsenal a new kid on the block have on the consumer revolution.

The knowledge of marketing that we have about the consumer is divided into types of fans of a certain product (fan, fence sitter, enemy). In a saturated market, 90 percent of the consumers are fans of a company, which we marketer call market penetration rate. So, we are left with the 10 percent, which is the fence sitter and the disgruntle or unhappy consumer as our potential marketer. No wonder, it is so difficult to penetrate the luxurious new market.

But, if we are persistence and understand the concept of saturation and retention. We will be better off. Let me show you how.


In 100 cold calling of potential customers, we will be meeting 10 non-fans. This show the importance for us to reach a saturation point of 100 percent total rejection.

Out of the 10 non-fan, we can only retain 1, as retention rate is usually 10 percent.

This show that in order for a new kid on the block to be successful in marketing his product, he must reach the saturation point of 100 percent total rejection and is better to retain an existing customer than to get a new one.

"Time and luck wait for no man"

Good Luck! Amigo!

Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

Hyperinflation: The last nail in the coffin of the deteriorating nation.

The scary word that will bring a country down to its knee is hyperinflation. Let us define it and discuss how it happens.

Hyperinflation comes from the root word inflation, which means an increase in the price of goods or services. So, hyperinflation means a tremendous and extreme increase in the price of goods or services over time or in other words devaluation of currency (aka fiat money).

So, how hyperinflation come about? More accurately how the devaluation of currency come about?

This occurs when the money supply becomes more than the money intrinsic reserve backing. The higher the ratio, the more worthless the currency. That's why the magic printing press will quench everyone thirst of money but it would increase the ratio and make it more worthless.

So, sensible governments need to be careful with the magic printing press. But why? Gomen decided to use their magic printing press...hey presto...the answer is....mounting debt, corruption and crony capitalism.

Now, we go to the topic of hyperinflation.

Say, hyperinflation occurred. We will study those who benefit and
lost from it and how detrimental it is to the nation.

Group of people that benefit from hyperinflation
A. Farmer
B. Debtor
C. Bond seller
D. MBO
E. House owner
F. Gold owner
G. Gasoline owner and intermediaries
H. Underground economy and black market
I. Foreign Currency
J. Stock especially plantation and property

Group of people that lost from hyperinflation
A. Saving in bank
B. Pensioner
C. Bondholder
D. Lenders
E. Banks
F. Insurance policyholder with local investment link

Detrimental effects of hyperinflation
A. Food and medical shortage, starvation and spread of infectious and vector bound diseases.
B. Rioting, robbing, and ransom
C. Suicidal
D. Social unrest
E. Anarchy
F. Marshal law, compulsory acquisition of civilian rights and property...eg. military control or junta.
G. Revolution, war and social uprising
H. Political unrest
I. The collapse of a nation
J. Brain drain
K. Flight of capital to other countries
L. Massive unemployment

Hyperinflation was so bad during the Wilmar Republic in Germany in 1929 that cigarettes start to be the new currency.

"Fate favored those who are prepared"

God bless us.

"Father, Let your' will be done."

Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

The Donald Duck Economy

Winston Churchill has always say deeply that "the more we delve into the past, the more we are able to see the future."


So, thinking of our "Donald Duck Economy" we should see what happened to the past to predict the future - see what happened to the "Greece Economy, France under King Louis XV and John Law, the Republic of  China in the 1940s, Wilmar Republic, Hungary, Zimbabwe and currently Venezuela. All these are Donald Duck economy because it is an economy that is model on debt. An economy that is model on debt is not sustainable.


WHY?

Debt is the first sins of the financial system. If you created debt, you created sin. Thomas Jefferson echoes such words in the 1920s "Neither a debtor or a creditor."

If you have debt, you will have to pay back the amount you loan together with the interest.

Interest is the second sin.

Because of this second sin, "a debtor is always obliged to a creditor."


As a result of the first sin "debt" and the second sin "interest", all the economic model is in turmoil.

Debt and interest created a vicious cycle, that would swallow anything within its path, you named it - anything?


As a result, all government has to tackle debt, somehow or another?

But how?

How the government can tackle debt - the first sin?

1) Increase productivity

2) Force Borrower to cut spending - tighten the belt.

3) Austerity Measures - "Hair Cut" for defaulters so that they pay up their loans.

4) Draconian law - Transfer of wealth from "have" to "have-not"

5) Use the magic Printing Press.


These are the 5 sensible options a government can do.


If I am dying and my parting advice to my children will be "If you are hard-working, you will never die, even if you have to work in the street, for the rest of your life." This word is echoed by both Napolean Hill and Dale Carnegie as the basis of the success of post-war American.

(Caption: I been to Beijing a few years back and people are peddling the street with their fresh goods at 2 am in the cold. Can we compete with that type of productivity? No wonder the Chinese works wonders in the current era.)


However, the most government that failed as the above decided to follow the Donald Duck economy and activated the magic Printing Press, which seems to works wonders like magic in wonderland.


"Hey Presto, Money is created with the printing press."


"Fate favored those who are prepared."


Good Luck, Amigo!


Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

 

 

Sign of A Great Economic Superhouse

The following criteria are needed if a country if to reign superiority based on the economic ground in the coming decade:

1. The country utilized a lot of leverage on good debt
2. The debt is less than income so that the country is sustainable
3. The income of the citizen of the country is less than the productivity so that the country is competitive.

Any country that passes such criteria will be the next economic superpower. At the moment, I can see only china...building 81 warships at the rate of 4 shift....omg working 4x harder than the average Joe... I would not be surprised if they were to rule soon.

If history were to be used as a yardstick, Japanese work shift, Kaizen, and Kaiban,., were exemplary for older generation z of Japanese netizens.

"We are great today because we stand on the shoulder of giants"

God bless

Yours Sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

"Everything Collapse Depression" vs "Great Depression"

"Everything Collapse Depression" will happen by 2030.


Let us see what's different between "Everything Collapse Depression" and "Great Depression"


Our world economy is fueled by the following:

1) Fractional Reserve Banking
2) Leverage
3) Derivatives
4) Speculation
5) Debt
6) Worthless "Fiat Currency"


We don't have the above 6 problems as massive as we have today during the "Great Depression"


So, I believe by 2030, we will feel the "Everything Collapse Depression" happening and "Great Depression" would feel like having "a day in the wilderness" compared to the next "Financial Storm."


So, now is not the time to collect wealth, but to secure our basic necessity to survive in the next "Financial Storm." and brace for "New World Order" soon.

 
I would prefer to be "20 years earlier than 1 day late for the everything collapse depression!!!"



Moral of the story: "Build your ark or perish will be the new trend when the Everything Collapse Depression occurred" - You have been warned!



"The bigger you are the harder you fall"


"God bless the world"


Yours Sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

Marketing: Cannibalizing the Product Life Cycle

In marketing, we learn about the "Product Life Cycle" to win market share.

But, in order to make our Product Immortal or forever "Evergreen in the eye of our customer", We must learn about the Product Life Cycle.

A Product Life Cycle is divided into 4:

a) Static or Introductory Phase

b) Growth Phase

c) Maturity Phase

d) Senescence Phase

In order for our product to reach the immortal stage, we need to always cannibalize our products in the senescence phase or we will be cannibalized by a new competitor with better products, marketing or cost structure.

This is what we call "immortality marketing" in order to retain market share.

This Principle is Practice by our famous Diva singers like "Madonna" and "Jennifer Lopez."

Everything that is great will come to a pass. We cannot force something new to consumer unless we are creative and innovative with radical ideas - "Trendsetter" - See Google and Amazon for instances they go for vertical and horizontal integration.

"Time and Trend Wait for No Man"

"May your day be blessed"

Yours Sincerely,

Dr. Lion. 

Current Scenario: "Cash is King" vs "Survival of the most adaptable."

The axioms "Cash is King" means that you can get anything and rule with tons of cash.

But, I beg to differ.


Warren Buffet always has a proverb at his sleeve "A fool and his money is always parted." and "Bull make money, Bear Make money, Pig get slaughter."


So, I prefer to joint the wise man on wall street and does not buy to the words, "Cash is king."


Therefore, I prefer to follow Mahathir's principle "Knowledge-based Economy." and "The wind of change principle."


Whereby, knowledge and adaptability rules - "See tons of cash cannot save even KODAK or NOKIA when the wind of change has come."

Currently, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela are having problems of adaptability to the wind of change - "The world which is less reliant on fossil fuel but more reliant on renewable energy for our daily lives especially transportation."


Therefore, be prepared for the wind of change when the time has come - "A man had to what he had to do when the time is right."


"Knowledge and productivity will create value for society" but "anyone that is ready for the wind of change will always survive."

Darwin sums it best "Survival of the most adaptable."


Good Luck! Amigo!

Yours sincerely,

Dr. Lion.   

Graceful Investment with age

Scenario:

At the age of 24, I was doing my master and stumble upon the idea of investing. Investing was the only way out for me as I was not allowed to work during my tutelage. So, I took up investing as a source of investment. However, investment was difficult for me initially. I stumble and fall and usually, my investment result is "2 steps forward, 3 steps backward."

So, I started reading books on investment. However, nearly all the book on investment only guide the "middle class" to be "rich." These books define the middle class as those with 1 million and above. But, where and how can I get a million dollar?

Therefore, I started researching on medium call derivatives. It is a very dangerous instrument - "like the sword of domiciles - either you make it to the cathedral of success or the chicken coop" or in other words "make you rich beyond imagination or heavily in debt due to total losses."

As a result, my asset was spinning like a "yoyo" throughout my 20s - 40s.

As I am approaching my senior age, I decided that I need to embark on another concept, which is "slow and steady growth" as I am not as young as before and I cannot stomach and make back any big potential loss or setback.

So, I would convert more from playing based on speculation (like George Soros) to more value investing (like Benjamin Graham) which allocate more on "paying a penny for dollar" and growth investor (like Peter Lynch) which allocate more on "putting his money, where his mouth is".

We need to sail, within certain parameters to be successful, it is our belief system that makes us or breaks us - like what Disney says "When I believe in Miracles."

Therefore, here in an evolving timeline for investor

1) 20-40 years - Energetic, young, entrepreneurship - going for most high risk, high gain company

2) 40-60 years - Mature - going for value for money investing, if you are not rich by then, don't fumble on, we should be thinking on "security" rather than "gain" at this age.

3) > 60 years - Serving God or a higher purpose and making sure that all our family's needs are well taken care of, so that, we don't have any unfinished business when we are called by the lord.


"Time and Experience waits for no man."


Good Luck! Amigo!


Yours Sincerely,

Dr. Lion.  

Opportunity Cost of Success.

Opportunity Cost is something that we forego or denied something else due to our limited resources.

We have unlimited demand, but the resources that we have will limit us from fulfilling our unlimited demand. Therefore, we have to forego something good for something better

"Say, if we want success or riches, we need to forego the comfort and luxury that fit our current standard of living. Save it. Invest in the right instruments and soon we will be rich." - This is called delayed gratification and it is the elementary forms of success of our Chinese forefathers when they come to the new world from China.

But, in current context, a rational guy should use his limited resources to fulfill the maximum of his aggregate utilities from the unlimited demands that he has or in other words use his resources to buy things or services that matter the most to him - nutrition, health, child education, entertainment, retirement planning or even estate planning in a form of will or trust.

So, different people will have different utilities. So, will have different needs to fulfills in his life with a different set of goals and objectives and planning before the inevitable.

"Make hay when the sunshine"


Good Luck! Amigo!


Yours sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

Price: Everything that matters.

Scenario:


1) "Nobody will buy a thing that he dunno what is the price?"


2) "Nobody sane will buy a thing that he dunno what it is?"



 This shows us the importance of price in our daily life.


Therefore, how is price set:


A) Nominal Price - or what we call the real price of an object under normal circumstances.

B) Buyer Price - a price buyer willing to pay

C) Seller Price - a price buyer willing to sell

D) Settlement Price  - a price that people settle for, after a certain premium or discount to the nominal price due to condition or time factor.



Here, we will use 2 items as examples: Water and Share of a Company.


I) Water will have:

 A) Nominal Price nearly zero, because it is easily available under normal circumstances.

B) Buyer Price - In a desert and someone dying of thirst, it will have the price that someone willing to pay that is higher than gold.

C) Seller Price - During raining season, the price that seller sell is negligible.

D) Settlement Price - Water is supplied by the government with pro-rated cost with some profit via water tap to most citizens in the world.


II) Share of a company be based on:

A) Nominal Price - Price at liquidation of the company per share.

B) Buyer Price - A price as cheap as possible, so that a buyer can maximize his profit.

C) Seller Price - A price as expensive as possible, so that a seller can maximize his profit.

D) Settlement Price - A Discount to Seller Price and also a Premium to buyer Price so that both seller and buyer reach a deal.


Comments:

1) Margin is the result of seller price minus the buyer price.

2) Margin multiply by volume gives you, your profit or loss.

3) That's why in economics it's your margin and volume that counts.

4) In stock, it's your Margin of Safety and Position Sizing that matters.


"Fate Favored Those Who are Prepared"



Yours Sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

Time: Reward the Good and Punish the Mediocre

Have you heard the story that whether "it is good or bad - time will tell."


Yes.


Time is the only variable in the universe that is not a material but an acceptable concept worldwide based on the moon (lunar calendar) or the sun (solar calendar).


So, if a business is prudent and practice good business principles and skills. The company should prosper, as said by Warren Buffet "Time reward a good business and punish the mediocre."


Same with us, if

1) we are at the upper hand - the landlord or creditor with interest, time works to our best interest.

2) we are at the lower hand - the tenant or debtor, time works detrimental to us.


Another caveat is that time rewards those who are productive - more hardworking, industrialist or creative.


"Time waits for no man!"


Good Luck! Amigo!


Yours sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

Gold: World's new Currency

China had set the parity of gold at nearly 1g of gold to 1 barrel of oil.



"1 g of gold = 1 barrel of oil"

So, for simple calculation say 1 barrel of oil is USD 55.

1g of gold is USD 55.



But, China imported 800k barrel of oil per day from Saudi Arabia and pay in gold. So, in a year China will need 292 millions barrel of oil which is equal to 292 tons of gold. This would eventually dry up China and the world supply of gold, leading to an upward trajectory of gold price.



Therefore, gold parity should be set up eventually to "0.1 g of gold = 1 barrel of oil"



So, 1 g of gold equal 10 barrel of oil or USD 550.

So 1 oz of gold or 31.1g of gold should worth USD 17,105 in the near future. OMG! What a calculation.


This would eventually bring the price of 1g of silver to USD 13.75 (within the current Gold to a Silver ratio of 40:1).


If this were to happen, this would be the new beginning for the new world order using gold and silver back currency and the demised of "fiat currency."


"Gold and Silver are the currency that will remain to have storage in value!"


Good Luck! Amigo!


Yours Sincerely,

Dr Lion. 

International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the collapse of the USD by introduction of SDR by IMF in 1 January 2018.

Current scenario:


1) After China, Russia and Venezuela kill the petro-dollar

2) Russia, China as well as India trading metals such as gold and silver in their own currency.

3) International Monetary Fund (IMF) and their Special Drawing Rights (SDR) usability for international trade by 1 January 2018.


IMF is going to form a new currency called "SDR" backed by IMF for international trade, which would then replace the USD as an international currency.


IMF will kill the USD as international currency because:

1) Their created SDR.

2) Worldwide support of SDR for international trade.

3) Creation of "International Ledger Technology" for SDR by IMF.


This would lead to the demise of the USD as an international currency.

The proof is that the IMF helped UK's Citibank to produce their inaugural first bond in the form of SDR.

Does this signal the end of USD dominance? Time will tell.


Good Luck! Amigo!

"The only constant changes!"


Yours sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

Risk Management: the new Frontier in Commerce

Risk Management is more about getting the "maximization of benefit with the minimization of risk" or we say getting the ultimate point at the "cost-effectiveness curve"


Cost-Effectiveness is divided into 3 genres:

1) Cost-Benefit Analysis
2) Cost-Utility Analysis
3) Cost-Effectiveness Analysis


I won't get into all 3 in details but, I want to discuss "Risk Management"


"Risk Management" fall into the concepts of the acronym " I AM - SAFE"

1) I - RISK Identification - Identify all the risk or hazard that is around us.

2) A - RISK Assessment - Assess the severity vs the probability or chances the risk might occur.

3) M - RISK Management - Manage the risk via substitution, replacement, elimination, control or personal protective equipment (PPE).


This is basically, risk management whether in the workforce, bank, stock market or even in a disaster.


"If you manage your risk properly, the chance of an event occurring will be lower due to Murphy's law - that strike the unprepared."


"Fate favors those who are prepared."


Good Luck! Amigo!

Yours Sincerely,
Dr. Lion.

Economics: The Human Miracles

What is really Economics?

Economics is basically the study of:

1) limited resources (limited supply)
2) unlimited wants (unlimited demand)

So, we need to find an equilibrium between the limited supply and unlimited demand to determine the equilibrium point.

In normative economics, the seller would try to stretch as much the limited supply and buyer would reduce their unlimited demand in the real world as time progress, leading to cheaper and more quality goods due to the "invincible hands"

However, if some goods (luxury goods) will to be expensive, substitution goods will be more expensive as well, as there will be hoarding in the supply chain or more demand in the real world for substitution goods especially Graffian goods (Goods for the masses).

But, if luxury goods become cheap, complementary goods will be cheap because as limited demand for luxury goods will also reduce demand for ancillary goods.

Nevertheless, all these falls under the ceteris paribus concepts (everything stays equal) and laizer farrie (free economics).

What about Parallel Economics during Economics or Humanitarian Disaster?

What is important during Economics or Humanitarian disaster is still - grab, ground, gasoline, gun, and gold.

Here, the limited resources will be difficult to come by due to disruption of the supply chain and we would need to be more discreet in our choices now as we have small finite resources that we could trade for necessity of life continuum - for a person dying of thirst, water would allure him more than all the gold and diamond in the world.

Hence "water worth more than gold in the desert" and we might even see a mirage of an oasis in the desert.

So, the moral is we need to "make choice every day".

We need to make decisions based on "What gave the best utility?" or "What gives the best profit?" or "Better what gives the best profit at lowest risk?" so that we "maximize our unlimited wants with finite resources."

"Best Profit at lowest risk" is the basis of "Risk management."

Good Luck! Amigo!

Yours Sincerely,

Dr Lion.    

Fool by "Percentage Ratio Scale" and limitation of our mindest.

In School, the first arithmetic that we learn is "+", "-", "x" and "/".

As we develop further, we start to learn "%". "%" would bias our thinking and limit our ability.


Here, I prove it.

1) "+" should go with "-".

If we lose $20, it is possible for us to make $20.


2) "x" should go with "/".

If we lose 5x "say our Rm 20 become Rm 4." We should be able to make back from "Rm 4 to Rm 20." This is because if we lose 5x, it is also logic, if we, make back 5x, under the "ceteris paribus" concept which is "everything equal under normal circumstances."


3) So, if we wanna think in "%" form. Then it should be "-%" and "+%". Say "-20%" and "+20%"

Say, if we lose "-50%" of RM 20. We have a balance of RM 10. Later, when we make back "+50%" from RM 10, we will have only RM 15...But, in reality, we still lose Rm 5. Isn't this a bad scenario.

Comments:

In conclusion, the percentage will always fool us and limit our thinking. Value our winning on an absolute ratio pair of "+"&"-" and "x"&"/" would be more rewarding and increase our world of possibilities.

In stock, if we can lose by 5x during a bear market. We can also win by 5x, giving rise to the possibilities of bagger stock during bulls.

"Fate favors those who are prepared"

Good Luck! Amigo!

Yours Sincerely,

Dr. Lion.  

Consequences of Trade War between US and both Russia and China.

The US is the current champion of capitalism and democratic but is also the current champion in technological advance and number one debtor nation with 20 Trillion in sovereign nation debts.

China and Russia is the current champion in a socialistic democratic nation which is tweaked towards capitalism.

However, China is now the factory of the world with one-third of the world product is produced in China and China is the current number one creditor nation in the world.

Russia, on the other hand, is the leader in military and space technology. Americans even needed Russia's spacecraft and technology to send their astronaut to space currently.

Based on my analysis, American is driven by money and are more afraid to sacrifice their life for their nation compare to their forefathers in the "American Revolution." In America, their concept currently is "Its an honor to die for your country, but lets the other people get the honor."

On the other hand, China and Russia are based on the concepts of "All for One, One for All." like the pledge of the three musketeers, whereby they go for the common goals - "together we stand, together we perish" - they were indoctrinated with such agenda since small.

Now, back to the analysis, under the common human doctrine "a debtor is always indebted to the creditors."

1) Therefore, based on such premises. All it takes for China to crash American and Trumponomics is to sell 500 billions of bond in the open market in 5 minutes. Yup! That's All!.... Make it fast and Swift! and by the American is gone. There won't be a buyer at all. All derivatives market will be crashing to its knees. Bye! Bye! to all the great banks in America! and OMG! China holds 30% of the sovereignty bond, that will be 6 billion USD for them to unwind.
 
2) Back to Russia! Russia has advanced Missile system, Nuclear warhead in Silos and trucks and the best Electro-Magnetic Jamming System. (EMS). EMS was so successful that it makes all the American Patriot Missiles useless and even their "Aircraft Carrier" as "White Elephant" and China is going on "Cyber Warfare" and "Space Warfare" which is a new frontier that attacks GPS...without GPS, American is blinded and if you are blinded, you cannot attack an opponent because you cannot see.

3) Current Scenario on Petrol: Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela had dumped the Petrodollar for China Yuan, whereby, all Petrol transaction is traded in China Yuan.

4) Current Scenario on Metals: Gold and Silver will not be traded and manipulated in USD anymore as Russia, China and India will start trading these Metals based on their currency and there will not be a USD 0.5 spread for trading these metals when conducted respectively, based on their currency.

5) United Nation had suggested a new currency to replace the current fiat money in circulation.

(All these information are a hypothetical scenario that is important to be accountable in every market scenario).

Good Luck! Amigo!

Yours Sincerely!

Dr. Lion.

   

Collapse of The American Dream

First of all, lets us discuss the basis of economics which is inflation, recession, and depression.

Inflation means that things are getting more and more expensive or in other words, our buying power diminishes.

Inflation can be further divided into cost-push inflation and demand-pull inflation.

In demand-pull inflation, everyone is rich and they are paying more for the price of goods or in other words they are bidding up the price of goods. Which are very very classical and very unlikely to happen in the current scenario.

In cost-push inflation, the cost is rising and the seller has no choice, but to increase the price of their goods or they would suffer losses. In every transaction, every seller and buyer objective is profit. If the cost in the supply chain increases the cost to the ultimate customer would also increase eventually due to pass-over cost leading to cost-push inflation. This is the type of inflation happening worldwide.

Recession, on the other hand, means that the economy shrunken and the buying power had diminished, and there is negative growth for two consecutive quarter due to short term debt cycle which is within 10 years time frame.

Depression means that the recession is so bad due to the long term debt cycle which is within the 70 years time frame.

Stagflation means inflation and depression happen at the same time. Inflation happens at the supply side and depression happen at the demand side. Because of the high cost of living and not many people having money to buy due to unemployment. This is what happens to America and the world over.

Back in America, the debt burden is too high. Currently, the Debt Ceiling is over 20 Trillion and if you stack a US 1 dollar bill from the earth, you can build a bridge to the moon.


Keynesian Growth Theory is based on:

1) Spend all the American has

2) Borrow all the American can - local or sovereignty

3) Print all the money - rob by inflation

4) Austerity measures - taxes and taxes.

*Do you know that it is cheaper to produce goods overseas like in China (10% tax and lower labor cost) than in America (30% tax).


So, how a Keynesian settle a recession:

1) Cut spending

2) Austerity measures - Hair-cut for debtors, with payment by tax-payer money.

3) Transference of Wealth from the "Have" to "Have-not"

4) The "Magic Printing Press"

*In 1929, the US President did all three above except number 4 and still failed. The great depression, only settle after 10 great years and World War II.

*In 2008, Barack Obama did the number 4 and succeeded to treat the symptoms but not the diseases with printing trillions of dollars.

*By 2023, Trump would probably need to do number 4 and treat the symptoms again with the printing of quadrillion dollars before bringing a dollar to oblivion and to its knee. Why is this so?


Comments:

This is because Stagflation and cost-push inflation will push nearly everyone (99%)  out of money, dried their saving and everyone will be in need of money (like oxygen for survival) due to Medicaid and bankruptcy will be a common word around - "spreading like wild-fire", leading to worldwide depression and "multiplier-effect" of the depression will lead eventually  to deflation and most sellers had no choice but had to do the most sensible thing, which is, to sell cheaply their goods or face bankruptcy. So, deflation set in and a hard time for everybody except if you diversify your asset class.

Then Trump would blow his Trumpet and print Quadrillion money leading to "Hyperinflation"

So, the only way to survive this eventual catastrophe is something of everything - "ground, grab, gasoline, gun, and gold."

"Fate favor those who are prepared."

Yours Sincerely,

Dr Lion.