Monday 30 October 2017

Mathemathicians are fooled by randomness

If Maths are really the only pre-requisite to be rich, Maths' Professor with IQ of Alpha, Beta, Kapha should be the richest man on earth.

But, this is not.

Why?

They are fool by randomness.

They pride on their "random walk theory"

In nature, things are a disorder when the sample size is small and only become more predictable if the sample size is big.

That's why predictably does not always work and things always work against the common norm in small sample size.

Even, if something has small finite probability in the past, if it happens, the probability is then 1.

Probability of a past event is 1.

Probability of flapping of wings of a butterfly causing a tornado is small, but if it happens, the past probability is 1.

A small event can change the world and Archimedes sum it best "if I have enough leverage, I can move the world"

Therefore, adaptability to change to surrounding, flexibility and some prayers works wonders.

Warren Buffet was a master of such circumstances.

Warren decided not to go to Boston but to go to University of Nebraska under the tutelage of Benjamin Graham that taught him value investing aka "buying a dollar for a penny."  Graham was master of value investing beyond his time and the main investor in GEICO insurance.

He knows that the best strategy is "to wait for people to drop dollar notes on the floor and he just pick it up" or in other words "fish in trouble waters."

Buffet on the other hand, always profit from others mistakes or exuberant, which make him extremely rich.

Therefore, the truth is human nature is "never random - because emotion is energy in motion and energy is motion is always in disequilibrium making it non-random or predictable"

whereby,

"bull starts in extreme bearishness and bear starts in extreme bullishness."

Buffet always joke "Bull make money, Bear make money, Pig get slaughter."

But, who am i to argue wit the Buffets? Ha Ha.   

"Knowledge and the adaptability with our financial environment and surrendering to our fate as determine by our creator works better than the almighty science per se!"

God bless us!

Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

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