The Peril of Investments.

If you were to invest for a long term horizon,

You will be interested to ask,

"Is my investment safe and how much is the return?"

The truth is that there is no safe investment and the return is variable except for government bonds which are relatively safe as it is tied to the local currency.

In the long horizon, our investment is affected adversely by:

1. Political,

2. Economical,

3. Technological or

4. Managerial changes

that would render a good investment in the past worthless.

Therefore, we must be ready for the wind of change.


Moral of the story: The only constant is change itself.


Be Bless,

Dr. Lion

Investment vs Speculation.

There is a great difference between investment and speculation.

In order to know about investment, we must know what is speculation.

Speculation is a gambling process whereby, we need to know the hot stock at the moment and be at the right stock at the right time.

Honestly, I find it to be difficult to be at the right stock at the right time as my trading skill and time factor are not by my side.

Investment, on the other hand, is about finding the unpolished gems and give time for the unpolished gems to be transformed into a diamond as every stock will have its day.

An investor's perspective, the lower the share price, the better it is.

As time is a friend of a good business and enemy of a mediocre.

The time to sell the unpolished gems is when:

1. The reason you buy is not there anymore

2. Changes in the economic or political scenarios or

3. There is another better investment, whereby, we trade for something more valuable.


Moral of the story: Stock is a voting machine for the short term, while, in the long term Stock is a weighing machine.


Be Bless,

Dr. Lion. 

Death of Currency sooner or later

There is no currency that survived beyond a century.

Let the encyclopedia of currency be our judge.

The life span of a currency is around 80 years old.

Why is this so?

This is because currency is printed and controlled by central government.

When the central government is weak or corrupted they will use the printing press to print our currency into oblivion as the printing process is not based on valuation of gold or other tender asset but is based on legal tender of the central government that print it.

That is why currency now is only legal tender in a certain country and not worldwide accepted.

If a certain country economy weaken, they will resort to devaluation or quantitative easing to boost their economy, killing their currency in the process.

Moral of the story is Death of Currency due to government meddling.

Be Bless,

Dr. Lion

Paradigm change of 2050: The new frontier in human development

The human population will reach 9 billion in 2050 from 6 billion in 2020.

Therefore, the population birth rate is 80 million per year from 2020 to 2050 and most of the population growth will be at developing countries in China, India, Africa, and Southeast Asia.

The newborn will definitely consume a lot of resources throughout their lifetime.

The essential resources are clean water, food, places to stay, fresh air, education, transport, health resources, and entertainment.

1. Clean water will become more scarce, making desalination and underground water essential.

2. Food will be the future growth engine as we need more food production to overcome food demand by growing populations with measures such as food tech and proper management of plantation assets. Therefore, whoever control food, control the world.

3. Houses will be more expensive as more families chasing after the finite supply of living space and the compact digital house will be ideal and high in demand.

4. Fresh air is also essential as more air-cond and air-purifier will be utilized with more renewable energy sources.

5. Education will be more expensive and more will be enrolled in fully online courses from prestigious universities.

6. Transportation will be overcome by regulations and mass-transportation such as bullet trains for the regional area and mass rapid transit in the urban area as well as usage of electric and compact cars to reduce space and cost will be exploited.

7. Health resources will be consumed up as more people going after early preventive medication, Traditional Chinese Medicine and living a healthy lifestyle.

8. Entertainment such as home-cinemas, virtual reality video, and interactive video games will become a reality.

So, we should be prepared for the paradigm change for the coming 2050.

Be Bless,

Dr. Lion.

Preparing for Currency Reset.

Imagine a scenario whereby currency is worthless or not in existence.

What type of World will that be?

It would be a chaotic and unruly world, whereby some will succumb to looting for survival.

There will not be law and order as we will be following the law of the jungle and at the very best most people will start by doing barter trade as it was the mode of trading since time immemorial, before the creation of coins and paper currency.

If the law of the jungle is the theme of the days, we will be in need of weapons to stay safe.

If people are still rational, they might resort to barter trade.

Here, we will discuss the ideal assets to have, in order to have the upper-hand in barter trade.

In a barter trade without paper currency, the best assets to trade-in are the necessities of life or what we call the needs in life.

So, what is the need in life?

The need in life are:

1. Food with a long shelf life for storage or a food orchard.
2. Water which is fresh and clean or a water straw with water filter
3. The shelter is far from major cities.
4. Clothes that are comfortable for mobilities and proper hiking shoes
5. Toiletries - toothpaste, soap, shampoo, toilet papers
6. Gasoline
7. Medicine - vitamins, minerals, essential medicine, and first aids
8. Gold and silver in the small denomination for essential barter trade.
9. Weapons against burglary, robber or wild animals as well as insects.
10. Light such as a fluorescent lamp to see at night
11. Firestarter like lighter or easily flammable items
12. Medical Services within reach.
13. Unpolluted air using an air mask
14. Radios with dynamos or solar and batteries for communications.
15. Entertainments such as poker cards and pre-install movies.
16. Fans or a small air conditioner for humidity.
17. An electric generator which uses gasoline.

But, if the conditions are not as severe, a small pile of silver and gold in small denominations would be adequate.

Moral of the story: Better to be a decade early than a day late.

Be Bless As Always,

Dr. Lion.

Global Currency Reset.

Say one day, A global currency reset occurs.

How will we to live?

The farmer still plant trees and the fisherman still fish.

What will happen is only that money become worthless.

So, how do we prepare for it?

By separating the wheat from the weeds.

The wheat are the necessity of life, while the weeds are the wants in life.

As the currency reset occurs, we would have to go back to barter trade as currency is not in existence anymore.

The victim are the rich in currency standard and saver as well as pensioner, while the victor are the poor borrower and commodity farmers.

So, what are the needs in life.

From the needful to less needful is grab, ground, gasoline, gourd, gun and gold.

All these things can always be barter trade for all our wants.

As a thing is worth how much a buyer willing to pay.

Moral of the story: It is better to be a decade early than a day late.

Be Bless,

Dr. Lion.

Time is the friend of a good business, enemy of a mediocre.

Time is the only factor in Physic that does not involve any physical object.


So, what is time?


Time is an abstract component in Physic.


In Business, time is a friend of good business, an enemy of a mediocre.

Why?


1. A good business will give a good return with time such as profit, passive income or dividend.

2. Bad business will give a negative return with time such as loss, unnecessary expenses, fines or lawsuits.


Moral of the Story: Time is the friend of a good business, an enemy of a mediocre.


Be Bless,

Dr. Lion.

The Price of Uncertainty and Black Swan in Economics.

Everyone hates uncertainty as uncertainty is akin to gambling.

In uncertainty, there will be times when we win and there will be times when we lose.

Therefore, if we can quantify uncertainty in probability terms, we will be at the better end of the bargain.

However, there is a black swan in economics. Therefore, we must be ready that our predictions are flawed and not steadfast to our opinion per se.

Moral of the story: Faith favored those who are prepared but striking a lottery or  being strike by a bolt of lightning can always happen anytime due to chance as prediction is never perfect. So, be prepared for the unexpected.

Be Bless,

Dr. Lion.

Acres of Diamond: Benefit of Living in Malaysia.

This article is dedicated to those of you who dream to leave abroad.

Premis: Benefit of Living in Malaysia.

1. No natural disaster except flood.

2. Sunlight available throughout the year with no extreme weather like extreme winter in the Scandinavian country.

3. Low Crime rate especially low Gun associated Crime or wars.

4. Low Cost of Living especially rental and purchase of homes.

5. Comparative Lower priced and multiple-choice of food available from the different ethnic groups.

6. Long strech of beaches and vacation island available throughout the country.

7. High Diversity of Culture from the different ethnic groups with religious freedom.

8. Large diversify flora and fauna especially in national parks.

9. Low utility bills especially water bills and water is easily available.

10. No massive traffic jams and low cost to maintain cars.

11.Free Universal Health Coverage for local citizen.

Summary: Proud to be Malaysian.

Moral of the story: Count your blessings and looks for acres of diamonds at your backyard.

Be Bless,

Dr. Lion.

Economy crisis is the transfer of wealth from one Asset Class to another.

Adam smith the father of economy in his book - "wealth of nation" stated that "A thing is worth how much a buyer willing to pay."

Judging from such premise: Money is only worth it, only if others is willing to accept a paper produced by the authority or government as money or more accurately currency.

The diffrence between currency and money is that money have storage value while currency storage value is depleted by inflation or in other word known as the increase in the money supply.

So, those who keep currency is at a high risk that their currency will be worthless.

So, let us learn about currency cycle.

When recession strike there will be no demand for wants as everyone will be fulfilling their basic needs.

So, cash or in other words currency is king.

But, if you print too much local currency, the local currency is useless compare to foreign currency.

When there is too much foreign currency in circulation, they will also collapsed in relative to metals such as gold and silver because gold and silver have storage value.

When, the new world order strike or economy back to stable, people would exchange their gold and silver for their new wants such as bigger house, bigger car or even cryptocurrency generating the boom in the economy intoxicated with debt when they don't have real asset or fundamentals to support it.

Moral of the story: A thing is worth, how much a buyer willing to pay.

Be Bless As Always,

Dr. Lion.

Types of Inflation and How to profit from it.

Inflation is due to an increase in the money supply.

Money Supply can be increased by increasing the printing of money or an increase in the velocity of money.

Increased in the printing of money leads to demand-pull inflation and eventually leads to hyperinflation.

Increased in the velocity of money leads to cost-push inflation and eventually leads to stagflation.


In hyperinflation, increased in money supply will make the money worthless.

The winner in hyperinflation is debtor or borrower, commodity business, producer of daily necessities and owner of real assets such as Gold and Silver.

The loser in hyperinflation is saver, lender, businessman, fixed pay employees, owner of big-ticket items such as house and automobiles as well as those who keep a lot of money.


In stagflation, the cost of goods increased drastically without an increase in the money supply. This makes each of us lose out in our buying power making us beggar in the house of the rich.

The winner in stagflation is commodity business and producer of daily necessities as well as the owner of big-ticket items such as house and automobiles.

The loser in stagflation is debtor or borrower, saver, lender, businessman, and fixed pay employees as well as those who keep a lot of money.

As a result, both hyperinflation and stagflation are bad for the economy and the citizen of a country.

Moral of the Story: Luck favor those who are prepared.

Be Bless,

Dr. Lion.

The right side of the equation during war (Humanitarian crisis).

War is considered a humanitarian crisis.

During the humanitarian crisis, everyone existence is at stake.

Therefore, everyone will only be looking to survive until the next day.

In order to survive for the next day, we will be in need of the daily necessity of life.

As a result, everyone will pay you in cash or barter trade, if you fulfill their basic needs during a humanitarian crisis.

So, what is our daily necessity of life:

1. Unpolluted air - Oxygen
2. Water - treated or some filter straw for raw water.
3. Food (non-perishable)
4. Clothes (especially warm clothing and night clothes)
5. Shelter away from the epic of the humanitarian crisis or hiking tents
6. Blanket
7. Gasoline
8. Shoes - jogging or hiking
9. Medical supply
10. Personal Hygiene (Soap, Toothpaste, Toilet Paper)
11. Detergent
12. Lamp or LED light
13. Lighter to start a fire
14. Battery
15. Groups of Friends and caregiver
16. Currency as Medium of Exchange - Gold, Silver, Foreign Currency, Coins all in the small denomination.

When the humanitarian crisis end, the economic restart and wealth transfer occurs.

Moral of the Story: Better to be 20 years early than a day late.

Be Bless As Always,

Dr. Lion.

The right side of the equation during an economic crisis.

During an economic crisis, we must be on the right side of the equation.

First of all, what is an economic crisis?

An economic crisis is what happens when economic activity is not feasible anymore for the province or country.

So, what is an economic activity? 

Economic activity is about the supply of money and the demand for goods by the citizen, to be purchased with the money supply in the country

Goods supply that is produced by the people of a country is known as real GDP.

Real GDP multiply by price is nominal GDPs. 

When the supply of money or the velocity of money contracts, we will be in an economic crisis.

As there is insufficient money supply to fulfill the demand for goods purchased.

This leads micro economically to a drop in the price of goods as well as a drop in nominal GDP.

An economic crisis is due to the aftermath of two consecutive drops in GDPs leading to an economic recession.

Economic depression is due to prolongation of an economic recession

As the recession comes, people spend less of the money they have on goods and services in the consumer market (as they are not sure of their next paycheck), leading eventually to a contraction in the money supply in the supplier market. 

This result in business closure and eventually leading to a contraction in money supply in the labor market, making people to spend less and less leading to a more worse recession as the multiplicative factors work on the deflationary loops enhancing each other to reduce severely the money supply in consumer market, supplier market and labor market, which would then leads to bank failure as bank is the intermediaries in all these market, unless apprehended by the government before something more sinister happen.

To be on the right side of the equation, we need to have the things that people are in need during an economic crisis namely the necessity of life such as Grab, Ground, Gasoline, Gold, and Gourd.

On the other hand, we must reduce our possession of luxury goods which fetch high prices during an economic boom due to consumers' wants and vice versa during an economic recession. 

Be Bless As Always,

Dr. Lion.

Which one is real money?

If you ask someone, which one below is real money?

1. Monopoly money
2. US dollar
3. Gold
4. Cryptocurrency

An adult like you and me will answer US dollar.

A kid will answer gold.

A futuristic person will answer cryptocurrency.

Moral of the story: A thing is worth how much a buyer willing to pay.

Be Bless,

Dr. Lion

Stages in Market Cycles and how to profit from it.

Stages in Market Cycles


1. Market contracting - buy high-quality Bond.

2. Reduction of interest rates - buy Gold and Silver

3. Hit bottom - buy Financial

4. Growing (Increase in GDP) - buy Technology, Property.

5. Late Stage (Reduction in GDP) - buy Commodity

6. Recession (Sell-off) - Sell as All Assets decline, buy Defensive such as Pharmaceuticals & Utilities.

Moral of the Story: Don't fight against the trend as the trend is our friend.

Effects on Stakeholders: Blanket Insurance Scheme (MySalam) for Low Bracket Income Owner.

Blanket Insurance Scheme is an insurance scheme, whereby, the insured or government paid a small fee and the insured were allowed to claim back a certain amount if a disaster befalls the insured.

The most common blanket insurance scheme is health insurance for the Low Bracket Income owner.

Lets us see the effects of the insurance scheme for the stakeholder: Government, Insurance Company and the Insured.

1. Government: Reduction in the burden of healthcare on government resources and better collection of healthcare revenue.

2. Insurance Company: A higher number of insured and commitment to Corporate Social Responsibilities.

3. Insured: They will have the opportunity for high-quality healthcare versus blanket universal healthcare in government hospitals.
However, their claims can only commensurate to the insured sum, transforming the insurance scheme into limited universal healthcare for the low bracket income owner. As time pass, the cost of healthcare will be more expensive as inflation set in with new technology, revised doctor fees and maintenance of hospital building, making it impossible for the limited insured sums to be viable for the long term.

4. Health practitioner: More revenue source for hospitals. However, this will encourage unnecessary investigations conducted as part of the health care plan, as profit, will be their main objectives versus necessity.

Bless Day ahead.

Yours truly,

Dr. Lion.

Consumerism: Death of all business sooner or later.

As we are entering the twenties, let us ponder on the concept of consumerism.

What is consumerism?

Consumerism is the consumer purchasing behavior that prefers to buy higher-quality goods at cheaper price as time goes on.

This makes the supplier or private company go bust as it losses its share to another company with a higher quality product at a cheaper price or if the private company is resistant to change like KODAK, NOKIA, and Burberry.

So, in order for a company to survive, they need to be very competitive and need to change with time, practicing KAIZEN or everyday improvement as a start or better if they practice the Principle of Carnibalizing their product life cycle so that the "S curve" of growth can be there.

If we don't cannibalize our own product, the competitor will.

We need a 180-degree marketing shift, in order to be the head of the pack and not the herd mentality of following the pack.

"The only constant changes."

Be Bless As Always,

Dr. Lion.

The Assets of the future.

The real assets of the future are:

1. Metals - Gold, Silver, Platinium, Copper

2. Commodity - Palm oil, Food, timber.

3. Currency - Japanese Yen, British Pound, Swiss Franc, New Zealand Dollar.

4. Collectibles - Amulet, Gems, Watches, Antique Notes, Arts and Painting.

Adams Smith coins it best "A thing is worth how much, a buyer willing to pay."

Moral of the story: Always convert something that is less valuable with something that is more valuable.

Be Bless As Always,

Dr. Lion.

How to win in Game of Chance? The Logic and Rational way.

The right way to win in Game of Chance is to use:

1. Knowledge

2. Skill

3. Attitude

4. Logic Reasoning of Luck..."You cannot win all the time...Win Some, Lose Some, Most important Income."

5. Rational..."Don't lose your head, when others lose theirs."


In order to be able to put the table on your side:

1. Increase the odds or we call probability and

2. Payables or we call pay factor to our own advantages.

3. Outpatient your competitors.


Be Bless As Always,

Dr. Lion.