Investment from a Doctor's Perspectives

 If you give a Doctor a technical chart, he would said it is an ECG reading. That is why Doctors is known as the worse investor. 

So, if a Doctor would diagnose the health of the stock market. He would have to see the symptoms and signs of the stock market.

Symptoms is what the patient's complain and signs is what the Doctor illicit or found out. 

The symptoms would be world and local news whether it is an act of God, big brothers' action or corporate announcement of individual stock as well as news and actions taken by competitive and complementary competitors in the industry. 

The sign would be volume-price action at international macro and local macro as well as microeconomics of individual  stock or commodity.

So, if the symptoms and sign shows uptrend or bull. We should increase our investment and buy high, sell higher. 

If they show downtrend or bearish, we should decrease our investment and sell low, buy lower. 

Both ways we make as long as we preserve our capital and winning and let it compounded.

Just remember, if we lose and our portfolio enter ICU or casualty ward just stop digging and remember to live and fight another day at another more favorable set of economic conditions. 

Stock market is the world's most cruel game. The stock market does not care whether you make or lose as the stock market have a life of it's own. 

Stock market is the fastest route to untold richest or the poor coop house as millions were won or lose in the stock market in the past and it will exist for many more years as long as capitalism exist. 

Moral of the story: Faith favored those who are prepare.

In God we trust, 

Dr. Lion

A fictional memoirs of a Day Trader

 The following is a fictional story from the memoirs of a day trader in bursa malaysia. 

Let us go back to the year 1996. The stock market boom in bursa with the second board counter reaching new high. We had stock such as Repco and Hwatai that reach 200  and 180 ringgit per share respectively. 

Everyone was joyous, cheerful and many millionaire was make overnight.

Alas, good time never last forever. In 1998, repco was last traded at 2 ringgit and Hwa Tai drop to 80 cents per share. If the king of stock drop up to 98 percent of its value what about the rest of the stock in second board?

There is total wipeout for stock participants and many speculator and pools suffered from bankruptcy. 

If you think this is the worse? Forward another 10 years to 2008. Share such as mkland drop from 4 ringgit to 10 cents. Still another 98 percent wipeout.

Is this the worse? No. Forward to 2020 during the covid crisis in March 2020, alot of mesdaq counter such as Fintech and Asiaply drop from 50 cents to 1 cents and share such as Puncak drop from 4 ringgit to 10 cents. Nearly another 98 percent wipeout.

So, how can we withstand a 98 percent wipeout every decade?

A 98 percent wipeout means a million invested in the stock market will be worth only twenty thousands. 

Share market is the fastest way to be millionaire or billionaire. However, it is a double edge sword, either you become rich or end in the poor coop house especially those who rely on tips. The end game for a failed speculator is either bankruptcy or suicide. 

Just ask any stock investor in 1998s, 2008s or 2020s, most of them would have retire from the stock market. 

Speculation in the stock market is akin to gambling and speculation or gambling is never safe or foolproof. 

Every once or then there is a killer wave that flush out or dried up every drop of blood that the punters have. If you want to see flushing, you can try trading in the forex and derivatives market. 

Honestly, if you take care of your losses your winning will take care of itself. 

I hope to be proven wrong, however history tend to repeat itself. Therefore, it is better to be safe than sorry when we speculate with our hard earn money.

Moral of the story: Gambling or Speculating is never safe as it is always better to be ten years earlier than one day late preparing our ark in this uncertain times. 

May your trading life be producrive. 

God bless you, 

Dr. Lion. 

Allocating our Finite resources to the test of times.

 Since time immemorial mans have unlimited needs and wants. This makes us desire for everything. However, our desire is limited by the amount of finite cash we have. Therefore, we should allocate our limited cash to fulfill our needs and wants at the optimum level and overcome the opportunity cost involve. Opportunity cost here would mean the loss of opportunity on other asset class as we allocate to one particular asset class. 

I would like to suggest an asset allocation that can withstand the test of time whether it is boom, bust, depression or disaster that will be able to grow with time and conservative in nature as well. Just remember that the dark days are many. 

Therefore, i would allocate my asset class as follows:

1. House and Lands and cash which include insurance policy, foreign cash and retirement saving 30 percent.

2. Stock, bonds and derivatives 30 percent

3. Cars and Collectible 20 percent

4. Gold and Precious metal 10 percent. 

5. Crypto 10 percent

This would make sure that we can withstands the ups and downs of the economy and rebalance our asset class as one asset class outperform the other or when one asset class underperform.

It is better to be ten years early than one day late.

Moral of the story: Fate favors those who are prepared and Murphy law state that calamity that we are prepared for in advance will not come to fruition.

Teach a wiseman and he will be wiser. 

In God we trust, 

Dr. Lion. 

Developing a vibrant country from scratch.

 Say I am the President of Timbaktu or Pulau Belakang mati, a country which is getting out from stoneage. 

How, can i develop my country if i had to start rebuilding my country from stoneage? 

First of all, in order to develop a strong and vibrant country i must have good governance and justice to be the bedrock principle for my country. This is because we cannot break good principle but break ourself going against good principle in life. Those who are good and productive need to be rewarded and those who are lazy or corrupted need to be censored. This would make my country more productive and treasure good value which is godly in nature.

Why must we eradicate corruption? Corruption is worse than the nuclear disaster in hiroshima and nagasaki which ended WW2. Great thinker in an African University had always believe that if you wanted to destroy a country or civilization, you can do it by allowing their students to cheat in exam, lower the passing marks and instill negative value such as corruption. 

As these children grow up they will be corrupted lawyers, corrupted doctors, corrupted engineer, corrupted police and corrupted army. As a result they country legislation is not trustworthy, the doctor is not passionate in his work nor effective, the engineer will build tofu building that can collapse any time, the police and army will be asking for bribe and put their personal interest above the needs to serve the country and all the citizens will only serve self interest. Just imagine whether this scenario is worse than a nuclear disaster that befall hiroshima and nagasaki?

So we need to stem corruption at the bud as the saying goes the fish is rotten at the head. 

Corruption and opium is the cause of the fall of the Chinese Emperor in the Qing dynasty and many other civilization worldwide. If the mighty Chinese Emperor can fall what about my small country in Timbaktu or Pulau Belakang mati?

Furthermore, we need to educate our young generation on good principles and moral values in life as well as creating a judical system that has good corporate governance and stem corruption at its core and at all level of society. Currently, China and Indonesia had strict laws that will execute anyone, that is found to be corrupted after a fair trial in court, be it billionaires, police chiefs, armies or even politicians. So with good governance, the justice system will make sure that everyone is equal in the eye of the law. There must also be division and independence in legislation, executive and judiciary. 

After good governance, what we need is a productive society. We should encourage productivity by rewarding more the productive group in society and encourage the non productive part of society to be productive. China recently have encorage more of their urban dwellers to go to third or fourth urban city to develop modern farming and rewarding those who are willing to work and relocate with higher renumeration that is three or four times higher than the basic income. This policy would encourage people to be more productive and competitive in nature to develop modern farming in their beloved country. 

Next, is to eradicate poverty and to increase the GDP of my country. GDP is refer to the amount of goods or service that my country produce in a year. 

How do we eradicate poverty? In order to eradicate poverty we must make sure our young generation treasure hardwork and success. Success does not come before hardwork even in the dictionary. We should creat productivity month, slogan and seminar. The Indonesian president, Jokowi understand this and he united Indonesian under the slogan "Mari kita kerja" and Indonesia is now setting the tone to be the fourth largest economy in the world. 

If all the strata of society is hardworking, productivity will increase and the GDP per capita will increase and as a result the socio economic and well being of the country will improve as more of the citizens will be free from poverty and out of the rat race.

The best advice that a mother can give to her children is to work hard all their life. In life if you do more than what you are paid for in life, you will be rewarded handsomely as coined by motivational Guru Napoleon Hill. 

You can ask any one that is freed from the bondage of poverty or achieve financial freedom, which is more alluring or motivated? Handouts or financial freedom from poverty due to hardwork on his or her own efforts?

Like the saying goes if you give a man a fish, you will feed him for a day. If you teach him, how to fish, you will feed him for a lifetime.

Lastly, in order to bring my country into a develop status. I need to bring development to my stoneage country. How to do that? I need to build big ticket items with priority on projects that have high impact on the economy, environment or society well being. I need to differentiate between good debts and bad debts. Good debts are debt that bring in more income and bad debts is the one that leads to leakage or money outflow. In this modern world, connectivity is time saving and time is money. I will build high class internet be it 5G or 6G. Those with higher speed can creat better infrastructure for Internet of Thing and the 4th industrial revolution. Next, connectivity is via highways to connect my strategic towns to ports. A better infrastructure nationwide include better railway tract such as high speed train, better airport and port that can handle bigger tanker such as afromax tanker will help to ease business and shorten my time to transport my goods nationwide as well as worldwide. China's belts and roads initiative to connect country worldwide by building massive infrastructure to creat the new silk route is to be applauded here. This should be follow by development and massive investment in R&D and training. 

Furthermore, why is development important? This is because if we have connectivity, commerce will improve and we will have multiplier effect in our economy. Why is this so? Say we develop highways for our country with a cost of 1 million. The spillover effect is more than 1 million as when the contractor gain more contract, they will hire more worker, worker would than use their income to consume more goods and service and the spillover effect of consumption can reach multiple time my initial 1 million as illustrated by the following examples. When a worker buy food, the food vendors can buy raw materials from the market, the market wholesellers can buy clothes and the clothes' shopkeeper can buy cars and the car dealer can go on holiday making the GDP multiply multiple of time. This is because the demand side of the economy does not only depends on money, M but also on the velocity of money, V. When the GDP increase the main beneficial is the government as the government owns the golden share in all business through a 28 percent taxation. Leading to multiplier effect in economy. Everyone will feel rich and there will be feel good factors spreading throughout the country. 

If i were to do the opposite and tax exorbitantly, i will have a lot of tax income initially but soon the tax income will reduce with time as people will be reluctant to spend nor work hard and the rich will migrate to better country. Japan suffer from stagnation in GDP and stagflation because high tax and high cost of foods and houses make Japan's citizen thrifty and compulsive to saving. This reduce the velocity of money and leads to lower productivity and GDP collectively. As a result, there will be lower tax overtime as in Japan since the 1990s. In the computer stimulation game Sim city if you increase tax rate your income over time will drop as people will migrate to other destination that is more conducive for business and support them and their family well-being. 

When my revenue grow, i can then do more welfare program and CSR as there will be more contribution from my government and other stakeholders be it businessman, Ngos, public organization or governmental bodies working in unison and harmony to achieve the ultimate goals of nation building. 

Sooner or later, with the Grace of God my country can achieve a developed country status as i have set the right guarding principle or compass for my country and fulfill my duty as the president or CEO of my tiny country of Timbaktu or Pulau Belakang mati. 

Moral of the story: You cannot break good principles in life but you can break yourself if you go against good principles in life.

In God we trust. 

God bless you, 

Dr. Lion. 

Brand Awareness is the lifeline of sales as location is for business.

 Proverbs say that a Great wine need no bush.

However, if you ask someone who sit Toyota. He or she will say that Toyota is the best car in the world. 

On the other hand, if you ask someone who sit Honda. He or she will say that Honda is the best car in the world.

Same with those who sit other branded car in the world. 

Say if Toyota and Honda merge. Those who love toyota or honda will be in complete flux and confuse.

So, if Toyota and Honda merge. We will need 3 brands such as Toyota, Honda and a merge brand such as Tohonda to cater for people from different groups and increase brand awareness and loyalty. Thats why we have Lexus brand name for Toyota in America. 

If you go to a bookstore, what will eventually make you decided to buy a book or choose another book? It is the title on the cover of the book. How many books that we buy from a bookstore in our house that we never flip past the first page? This show the important of brand awareness in generating brand loyalty and sales. 

Same in life brand name is essential in this 4th industrial revolution. In instant, the Coke brand name is worth billions and even if Coke go bankrupt the brand name of Coke will ensures its survival and will worth billions. 

Gone is the day whereby great wine need no bush philosophy works but internet marketing is a fight at every inch of marketing place in the internet edge.

Everyone of us surely can make better burger than Mcdonald but we cannot compete with their marketing, sales force and real estate in prime location.

In medival China, wars were won based on the flag and drum beat, which will increase the morale of the soilders in war. It is the same in business, brand awareness will increase sales and brand loyalty. 

Moral of the story: In business it is all about location and in sales it is all about marketing, brand awareness and brand loyalty.

God bless you. 

In God we trust, 

Dr. Lion. 

Building your ark to Financial Wealth: Performance of different asset class during hyperinflation.

 Let us look at hyperinflation in Venezuela and Zimbabwe and see how each asset class perform in moderately inflated country such as Turkey. 

Here, we will define what is hyperinflation first. Hyperinflation occurs when the local currency devalue against US dollar until it is basically useless and worthless. In Zimbabwe, 1 US dollar is worth 100 Trillion dollar and In Venezuela 1 US dollar worth 13 zeros on the Venezuela bolivar. Here, i might not be exact as the currency exchange rate differ with time and state of the economy. However, basically the currency is worthless. Take Zimbabwe for instance 100 Trillion dollars cannot buy you a chicken. This is extreme case in history of mankind with Hungarian Pengo also as a prime example.

As the more we delve into the past the more we can see the future. 

Here, we will study Turkey as a prime example.

Turkey in 2018 have an exchange rate of 5 Turkey Lira to current rate of 25 Turkey Lira to the dollar or roughly we can say Turkey Lira devalue around 5x.

We will study the effect of Turkey Lira devaluation on buying power of imported goods, export goods, commodity, property, collectible, gold and crypto.

Effects on imported goods, will increase 5x making importer to increase price accordingly but the demand of the goods will decrease. Those who stock alot of non perishable imported goods during good times will profit extensively. Those who export will also benefit extensively as they get more money for their goods and their margin will be bigger most likely around 5x. This is also good for tourism of Turkey as more foreign tourist will have better exchange rate to cushion their purchase and expenses during their trip in Turkey. Tourism will enjoy a brisk business. 

Next, we will talk about commodity. Commodity such as palm oil, rubber, dates, olive oil, rice, cocoa, coffeeand sugar will increase by 5x as well if it is traded in US dollar. However, the cost of production will also increase accordingly especially fertilizer, pesticide, transport and labour. So business, need to recalibrate their business so that they can increase their margin of profit accordingly.

Property price should also increase 5x accordingly in Turkey. However, property is a big ticket item. So, there will be price but no buyer. As local buyer is unable to get bank loan to purchase properties. Unless you sell your prime property to foreigners or you sell it at a firesales price to rich locals. If you decided to keep your property the price of maintenance, tax and repair will increase accordingly by 5x in Turkey. This can transform property rental from a good debts to bad debts as there will be more cashflow going out per month than coming in, unless you increase the rental price and risk losing your tenance. Those who cannot pay their monthly bank loan will be subjected to foreclosure.

Collectible such as rare antiques, wines, watches, papernotes, baseball cards, amulets, stamps and toys should also increase by 5 times. However, the increase is not proportionally 5x as there will be price but no buyer as the buying power of the masses will be reduced massively unless the masses are doing business that is at the right time and right place which is export or tourism industry in nature. Worse still, some of the collector might be in dire street of money due to cost of living such as food and house or emergency such as health issue, car repair or house repair making them to sell their collectibe at a firesales price or whatever price the buyer offer, making it a buyer market. Unless, you are able to sell to collector in neighbouring country or worldwide in the neighbouring country currency such as Euro denomination in Greece or worldwide in US dollar denomination. Basically, selling in neighbouring country or worldwide is export oriented in nature.

Gold and precious metal on the other hand will increase 5x accordingly in Turkey as it is a limited commodity and is traded worldwide in US dollar. However, the weakness of Gold and precious metal is hammer down by the spread that goldsmith or bank will charge you when you decided to sell which can be as high as 5 to 20 percent from the current international price making it profitable only if the price in Turkey have appreciate by 20 percent from your purchase prise in the minimum scenario. 

Crypto on the other hand, is traded in USD denomination. So, it will increase 5x in Turkey. However, crypto is subjected to bank run and rug pull worldwide. Therefore, we need to be selective when chosing crypto and buy only those in limited supply, ideally below 1 billion in curculation and those which is not subjected to be replenish via mining or reward once the selling pool or admin max out their selling. As the saying goes in the short term buying is based on a voting machine or preference but in the long term it is based on weighing machine or quality. In everything, price is what you pay and value is what you get. 

In hyperinflation, the biggest loser is currency hoarder as the currency devalue due to inflation and will be worthless toilet paper over time. Have you seen any currency survive to this day? Be it China, Greece or Federated notes in US. All i can say is a thing is worth how much a buyer willing to pay coined by Adam Smith and if supply outsmart demand during hyperinflation due to massive printing of currency, currency which is akin to storage of value for the citizen be it pensioner, saver, businessman, trader or employee will cease to function and be worth only on its tangible value which is the weight of the paper we call money.

The only respite is that borrower can repay with cheaper money.

Those who are not prepare and swim naked will be exposed. 

Hopefully we are at the right side of the equation when the inevitable happen.

Survival of the fittest as in Darwin's Theory.

You cannot break good principle in life but break yourself going against good principle in life.

In God we trust and God bless us all. 

Moral of the story: It is better to be 20 years early than 1 day late in the quest to be financially independent. 

God's Mercy endures forever, 

Dr. Lion. 

Peril and collapse of a Capitalist Society.

 Capitalist Society is a society that encourage productivity, growth, motivation to excel and novel creation.

However, the goal of the capitalist society is their main weakness. Capitalist society is always motivated by maximization of profit. 

Maximization of profit leads to greed and lost of noble humanity trait such as benevolence, pity, love, patience and most important Godly in nature. 

The Greed here is always about maximization of profit or what we say to be richer and richer. Just ask any businessman in the capitalist society how much money would be adequate for them. Billion? Trillion? Decalion? 

Money is not the problem here but Greed is the problem as the Proverbs said the Love of Money is the root of evil and those who love silver will never be satisfied with silver. 

Money will transform us from a lovely human into a menacing machine that will churn as much money as possible. 

Maximization of profit is good, but not on the expense of your health, family and friendship. 

Fools are make in house of merry and wisdom is make in the house of mourning with the countenance the heart is make pure. 

Try to be more humane and smell the lovely flower in your garden or spend time with your pet. Capitalist society will tend over time lose their human nature and be burecratic in nature. 

Moral of the story: Money is a blessing but Love of money is the root of evil

Every member of capitalist society will be motivated by money leading to collapse of civilization such as the Babylon. They prefer personal gain rather than patriotic, love, sacrifice or nation building leading to evil empire and collapse of capitalism worldwide in a vicious cycle.

I hope to be proven wrong but the more you delve into the past the more you can see the future as future always repeat itself. 

In God we trust. 

God's mercy endures forever,

Dr. Lion. 

Characteristic of a doom country with Venezuela as a benchmark

 What is the sign and symptom of a doom country? 

The sign of a doom country is when the country spend more than what it earns and have massive leakage. 

Why does a country spend more than what it earn? This is because the country tend to become a welfare state without the resources to support it. A welfare state is a country whereby the masses is subsidizes or given handout. While, the productive part of society is taxed massively, this happen to Sri Lanka, Venezuela and Pakistan bringing them to the brink of bankruptcy and a failed state. Welfare state is akin to robbing Peter to pay Paul or what we say in economic there is no free lunch, when someone get it for Free someone have to pay for it. 

What is the leakage in a doom country? Corruption, whereby a leader's only goal is to enrich themselves, making personal goal top priority than to develop the country, for the betterment of the next generation, this happen to many country with dictators like leader such as Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

We have talk about the sign of a doom country. Let us talk about the symptom of a doom country. The symptom of a doom country is low foreign reserve, worthless exchange rate and massive printing of worthless currency leading to hyperinflation whereby money is worthless. History recorded that 100 trillion dollar in zimbabwe cannot buy you a chicken in zimbabwe in 2008. This happen to country like Hungary, Venezuela and Wilmar Republic in Germany as well.

We have seen the signs and symptoms of a doom country. Is your country having the sign and symptom of a doom country? 

If yes. So, what is the prevention? Prevention is better than cure and I always believe if you fail to plan, you plan to fail and it would be better if you are 20 years earlier than one day late.

The best prevention strategy is to exchange worthless fiat money with God's money that stood the test of time since immemorial or People's money which is the money of the future like what Adam Smith coin it, a thing is worth how much a buyer willing to pay.

What is God's money, God's money is precious metal such as Gold, silver, platinum and rare earth that is finite in number on earth and will always rise in price with time and withstand the devaluation of fiat money with time. In God we trust as the American dollar proclaimed.

What about people's money? People money is money that is universal and accepted worldwide without government intervention or jurisdiction such as Crypto and things for barter trade such as grab, ground, gasoiline, gold, gourd and gun.

If we delve into crypto? We must select the high grade crypto which is crypto with limited number in circulation not exceeding 1 billion unit and not easily reproduced as time is a friend of a good business and enemy of a mediocre and you can fool people once but not everyone everytime. High grade crypto include bitcoin and ethereum and their descendants.

I hope that i am proven wrong and all these signs and symptoms will not happen to any other country like what happen in Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Argentina, Sri Lanka and Pakistan but may these countries trod on the path of prosperity sooner or later. 

Moral of the story: Murphy law stated that the sorrow of what we are prepare for will seldom happen. So, if we fail to plan, we plan to fail. 

May God's Grace and Mercy with us forever. 

God's Mercy endures forever,

Dr. Lion. 

The Doom Country

 If you want to find a recipe of a doom country, look at it's people.

If a country workforce is unproductive. Then the country is destiny to fail as the youth and the younger generation will be a burden to the country rather than a blessing. The GDP per capita of the country will be lower than the maximum output achieveable. 

Worse still if the income per capita of the country is more than the GDP per capita, making it non-productive and non competitive in the world standard and investor will prefer to invest in more competitive country that offer more return to investment. 

If the debt per capita is more than income per capita than the debt become non serviceable and the country will be burden by debt, whereby the country resource that should be invest to generate more income is use to service the debt. 

Worse still is the debt multiply more and more to support corruptible leader and creating a welfare state making the productive unproductive and the unproductive a burden to the country. 

In economy, there is no free lunch, when someone get it for free someone have to pay for it. Corruption and welfare state is like robbing from the future generation for one's prosperity or for current spending. 

When the debt is too massive then the government will succumb to printing massive amount of money to get out from the debt trap leading to hyperinflation. 

The Loser in hyperinflation will be the saver, the pension fund and pensioner who have to live with worthless papernotes. 

Moral of the story: You cannot break good principles in life but break yourself going against good principle in your life. First of all manage well your debt, so that your debt is less than income and your income per capita is less than your GDP per capita to make you competitive by the world standard. 

God bless you, 

Dr. Lion. 

What is the magic number to conquer inflation

 Say, we are currently 45 years old and we might live for another 40 years. How much money must we have to maintain our status quo for the next 40 years.

On overage, we will need at least 2k per month to survive in malaysia and we put in mind that inflation will double every 10 years. 

Our needs for the first 10 years will be

Rm 2000 x 12m x 10y = 240k

In the 2nd 10 years will be

Rm 2000 x 12m x 10y x 2 = 480k

In the 3rd 10 years will be

Rm 2000 x 12m x 10y x 4 = 960k

In the 4th 10 years will be

Rm 2000 x 12m x 10y x 8 = 1920k

In short over the 40 years, we will need

Rm 2000 x 12m x 10y x (1+2+4+8) = 3600k to maintain our status quo in 40 years time. 

However, Thank God inflation does not increase in linear fashion as water, electricity, phone bills and insurance is not subjected to inflation rate as much as food and medicine. 

Therefore, we need to itemised inflation rate for each individual item and we will need a much lower amount of money than 3.6 million to maintain our status quo in the next 40 years.

We can roughly divide our source of income for the following 4 decade:

1.First decade from our daily job. 

2.Second decade from our pension or EPF. 

3.Third decade from our investment and insurance. 

4.Fourth decade from our property.

The biggest misery in human nature is fear of the unknown. 

Hence, we can creat a plan to overcome inflation and live a bless life. If we fail to plan, we plan to fail.

May God's blessings be with you always. 

Everything is possible through God who loves us, 

Dr. Lion. 

Effect of Consistent Compounding on the lifetime return of investors.

 Say, we have 3 brothers Joshua, Buffet and Soros who are investor and would invest over the horizon of 40 years. 

All three of them have just inherited 1 million from their grandfather recently. 

Joshua is a stock investor and hope to gain a consistent average profit of 10 percent per  year over his lifetime. At 10 percent return per year, his 1 million will become 64 millions in 42 years of investment.

Buffet on the other hand is more selective in his investment and only invest in high grade stock with average consistent annual return of 20 percent. His 1 million will become 4 billion in 42 years of investment. 

Soros on the other hand is a speculator and he speculate on high risk stock with average consistent annual return of 40 percent. His 1 million will become 4 trillion in 42 years of investment.

This show the magic of compounding on the lives of 3 types of investor. Which investor are you? Joshua? Buffet? or Soros? 

Moral of the story is If you take care of your losses the profit will take care of itself. 

God bless, 

Dr. Lion. 

Effect of First Nuclear Strike on Financial Market

 If there is a first nuclear strike by any nuclear nation.

The financial market will collapse making all strong fundamental stock and derivatives market to be worthless. 

However, grab, ground, gasoline, gold, gun, gourd and guard will be in high demand worldwide as food, lodging, medicine and safety become the top priority.

The world wide web will be down due to hacking and loss of infrastructure such as destroy of underwater cable. 

Therefore, crypto, banking transaction and share trading will only be available if there is internet. 

If there is no internet, we can only rely on physical asset to survive such as food, toiletries, fire equipments, camping set, cash and gold to survive on barter trade.

The world might enter anarchy and we must find a hideout for us to survive the short term due to nuclear fallout or lawless state.

These are all early sign of tribulations. 

Better be 20 years early than 1 day late. 

God bless, 

Dr. Lion. 

Everything Collapse Environment AKA 1929 Great Depression

 If Everything Collapse Environment come where can we hide.

Say, the Collapse started in the financial market. 100 Trillion is wipe out from the market whether it is stock, bond or repo. This would create a black hole in financial market that will suck the life of all the asset class in the world.

Whether it is metal market, commodity, housing, forex market or crypto market.

All and everyone will be akin to the acronym die standing especially those who are highly geared, on margin and highly on debt unless you are on the right side of the equation.

So, how do you prepare for it?

By making sure, we have a roof above our house, food on our table from our own garden, solar panel in our house, water source nearby and a support group nearby.

Furthermore, if we profit from the financial market we need to move and diversify our asset class to secondary asset class that is less volatile that are able to withstand the test of time such as grab, gasoline, ground, gold, gourd and guardian to withstand the coming everything Collapse Environment.

It is better to be 20 years early than 1 day late as the everything Collapse Environment can come from sun annihilation, alien attack, US dollar Collapse, nuclear fallout, World War, act of God or financial Collapse.

Murphy Law says that things that we are prepare for will not usually come to pass.

I hope to be proven wrong that the Great Depression 1929 does not repeat itself but history did repeat itself.

Moral of the story: Fear God, Follow his commandments and he will straighten our paths.

God's Mercy endures forever,

Dr. Lion.

Which type of trader are you? Speculation vs Investing in the market.

 Say, we have two brothers that is keen on investment. One of them is Speculative Kim and the other one is Investor Buffet.

The world is divided into multipolar and not unipolar, so i cannot say one method of investment is better than another.

Let us see how Kim's makes money. Kim buy on rumors and sell on facts. He was not interested in the fundamental of the company, he was more interested in daily profit as he believe the technical of the stock is more important than the fundamental in spoting which stock is favorite by operator. He believe that playing stock is like earning daily income as he is not patience to wait for a undervalue stock to bear fruit as he believes in the long term everyone is dead. He wants his money and he wants it now. He would make sure that technical will help him ride up the way up and ride down the wave via long and short position respectively. He does not believe in building wealth, he trusted no one except for his technical skills.

Buffet, on the other hand is an investor and he believe that if he buy dollar for penny he will have big margin of safety and he can profit when the stone that he bought become polished diamond. He does not believe in the hype by the public, he based his decision on cold fundamental facts before making his decision to purchase a stock as stock in the short term is a voting machine and in the long term is a weighing machine.

Both ways can make money but you must make sure which way suit you best, whether you are a speculator or investor as both can suffer serious consequence too as we cannot break the golden rule of investing but we break ourself going against the golden principle and the higher the risk, higher will be the gain. 

A speculator must be a master of technical to buy before the syndycate and sell before the syndycate as they believe stock chart never lies. A speculator will perish if they never look out for danger sign and live to fight another day. He is at the mercy of the syndycate such as cfm, hongseng, tawin, asiaply as current reference in bursa. 

An investor must be a master of fundamental in making sure that the thing that he buy is good from the start. If he bought a stock that turns out to be a can of worms rather than unpolished diamond he will have the fastest way to the coop or the poor house. He is at the mercy of how accurate his current fundamental information and whether the stock that he buy can withstand the test of time like kodak, xerox, nokia and blackberry that go bust when demand is not there anymore, worse still he is subjected to false information such as what happen to Enron, Bear stern and Credit suisse.

If you realized that you are a speculator and end up as an investor you have failed and will be keeping some unpopolar unsold stock in the closet with massive losses or if you are an investor and you tried to trade for a profit daily, you will be selling what you needs to buy something you don't need and will not have the time for your profitable stock to run their full course. 

The most profitable investment of the century is to understand your character and temperament as a speculator or as an investor and learn to overcome the risks and setback for a particular class of trading or investment as the saying goes a good stock is the one that you make money and a bad stock is the one that you lose money.

Bless is the one that understands his own personality. 

Moral of the story: Every one greatest enemy is his emotional makeup.

Have a bless day ahead, 

Dr. Lion. 

Ugly Nemesis of Inflation on retirement

Price of a bowl of mee is 20 cents in 1950s and by 1990s it have risen to 2 ringgit. Basically it rise by 10x in the span of 40 years or 8x in the span of 32 years. 3 doubling cycle in the span of 32 years or more exact double every 11 years from our illustrations. 

History have proven that price of Goods will double every 8 to 12 years on average. 

So, the rate of inflation would by 6 to 9 percent per year.

If we based our assumptions on the best case scenario, food price will double every 12 years and we assume that the rate is linear in fashion and everything remain constant or what we call it in economic ceteris paribus. 

So, if we live for another 50 years from the current year 2023. Inflation would have four cycle of doubling and if we live with a basic income of 2k per month, by the time we reach 2073, we will need 2k x 12 month x 8 times to survive. Basically, we will need 192k per year to survive by then and this does not include medical bills, car bills and house repair. 

If we will to retire in 2023, we will need 2k x 12 months x (1+2+4+8) x 12 year cycle or basically 4.32 million of retirement cash to survive another 50 years without inputing high cost items such as medical bills, car repairs and house repairs.

So, basically those who retire will be soon out of money, making retirement a nightmare as retirement fund have to face a myraid of expenses, together with inflated price in the future.

If you fail to plan for your retirement you plan to fail and this does not include mismanagement of a country economy which can leads to hyperinflation and worthless currency. 

3 things can be consider certain in life which is death, tax and inflation.

Therefore, when we retire we need a passive income or business to supplement our current lifestyle. 

Most importantly, we need to prepare for our afterlife as we are only traveller or visitor on planet Earth. 

Moral of the story: Build treasure on heaven where moth and rust cannot destroy and thieves cannot steal.

Have a Bless Journey in Life, 

Dr. Lion. 

Trait of a Successful Trader

 Successful traders realise that they are not in control of the market (uncertainty), they view the market as a force of nature without an agenda. The only thing they can control is their own actions, activities, behaviours and emotions. The top traders know they are not infallible. All humans have biases and limits to cognitive abilities, anyone is capable of being swayed or easily distracted, everyone’s personality is different and brings different influences to bear on their decision-making. However, successful traders work around these factors, they accept that losing is part of winning, and they know their job is to make money, not to be right. It is another of the paradoxes of trading: Successful traders can lose money, get markets wrong, but still consistently come out on top. Failing traders can have wins, get markets right, and still consistently under-perform.

Gold is God's money and will stood the test of time.

 In the event of anti christ, only gold and silver will survived.

Price of gold

= gold price x USD conversion rate.

So, if Ringgit weaken, gold price up as USD conversion price appreciate. 

If USD drop, gold will up as gold become cheaper relatively for foreign buyer and there will be more demand for Gold. So, Price of gold up too.

Unless, if USD strengthen relative to a basket of international currency and ringgit strengthen more than USD, we enter catch 99 and gold price will drop as the demand for gold reduce and appreciating ringgit is not supportive of gold price in the local ringgit. 

Gold had stood the test of time since time immemorial.

Gold and silver is God's money

Moral of the story: Bless is those who can predict the future as it is better 20 years early rather than 1 day late.

Be Bless, 

Dr. Lion. 

Armagadeon: Economic Death due to inflation.

 Inflation is a menace for those who are preparing for their future and the more we study about the past the more, we can see the future.

Let's see price of food in 1970s and compare to recent price. In 1970s a bowl of mee would cost you 10 cents and in 2022 it is nearly 10 ringgit. A 100x inflation within a span of 50 years. 

So, in the next 50 years, around 2070, a bowl of mee would cost you 1000 ringgit. 

Therefore, if your current monthly expenses is 2000 per year and you can retire comfortably with 1m of asset. 

Rewind back to the 1970s, a person would only need 20 ringgit to survive on for minimum in a month and you can retire comfortably with 10k of asset.

Fast forward to 2070, a person would need 200000 per month and can only retire comfortably with 100m of asset.

How many of us have 1m for retirement currently and even if you have 1m currently can you grow it to 100m by 2070.

It will take our asset to double every 7 years, if we want to multiply it by 100x in the span of 50 years. 

This is an utopian dream as we need to cover our monthly expenses that is inflated by doubling rate every 10 years and if we want to be able to have a better future, we need to live below our means. 

Not many people, who have 1m asset at current juncture, so the dream of a secure future will only be a dream of the future. 

Therefore, we should just live for the current and let the future take care of itself. 

As we get older, our medical cost will rise tremendously while the expenses for other items will be reduce accordingly. In Malaysia, only the rich can afford private medical care. The average will depend on universal healthcare coverage in our country.

Many business, will go bust sooner or later as with limited resources customer will demand products with higher quality or functions at a lower cost due to competition and market changer. Many companies that failed to change with time had gone under such as kodak, polaroid, nokia and blackberry.

Therefore in business the only constant is change. 

As a result inflation and competition will kill the economy or civilization sooner or later. 

Therefore, what we can do is make sure that our debt is less than our income so that we are solvent and our income is less than our productivity so that we are competitive. 

Moral of the story: Inflation will destroy the economy and our retirement unless we are able to multiply our asset every 7 years.

Therefore, we can only depend on God for our future. and enjoy our lives while we still can.

Be Bless, 

Dr. Lion. 

Dark Days: We are entering the season of tribulation.

 Nearly whatever disaster there is to happen in this world had really happen.

You named it, you got it. 

Plaque, such as Covid in the end of 2019 which leads to many deaths around the world and long period of quarantine leading to misery, hardship and lost of both economical activity as well as death. 

War such as Russian Ukraine war in march 2022 which bring hardship to Russia and Ukraine. 

Earthquake such as the one in Turkey in 2023 leading to building collapse, death and insurmountable economic loss to Turkey.

Soon, the whole world will enter a period of famine. 

These events shows that period of tribulations is coming. 

We need to repent and get forgiveness from God as days of tribulation is approaching. However, the end of days is still far with war and rumors of war getting nearer and nearer. 

Bless is the one that walks with the Lord in truth and in spirit. 

Be Bless, 

God's Mercy endures forever,

Dr. Lion. 

Why a welfare state will fail eventually.

 Let us consider the notion a welfare state.

A welfare state is a condition whereby the government provide us with all we needs without us doing anything in return. This is known as a free lunch. 

In economic, there is no free lunch. If someone get it for free, someone had to pay for it. 

Why welfare state would eventually fail?

Welfare state would fail because welfare state is akin to robbing Paul to pay Peter or what we say as robbing the rich to pay the poor. 

As the poor, get welfare, more people will be demotivated and unproductive to be characterize as the poor to get welfare. 

This will kill productivity as the rich and productive workforce decided to work less as the more they work, the more they will be tax.

Let us see the effect of welfare exam. Say a class in middle school have a bell shaped distribution of 50 percent in the median and 20 percent top scorer and 20 percent low scorer and the teacher tried to do a social experiment on welfare marks so that everyone will past eventually. So, after the exam the teacher said everyone pass without disclosing the low scorer and high scorer. As a result, in the next exam the high scorer will be demotivated and stop studying for the exam and spend more time for leisure and easy going life. While, the low scorer will be more easy going and does not care about the exam anymore. As a result, the school national exam result will drop from the national standard and the student will be demotivated to study anymore. 

Back to a country, if we practice welfare state, the country productivity will drop based on international standard as the rich and productive part of society will be demotivated and not productive anymore and lower productivity leads to lower GDP, higher debt and eventually the country economy will crumble as the rich and productive earn less and the poor demand more, leading to deficit or what we say the country expenditure for welfare will outpace the country income like what happen currently to Sri Lanka and Pakistan. 

Therefore, a welfare state would soon eventually evolved into a socialist country whereby the country will try to tax the rich more and make the asset in the country state own as more resources is needed to creat a safety net for the poor and when this crumble in a country due to debt and hyperinflation such as in China and Russia this can eventually leads to communism as the poor or the masses blame the rich for the economic disaster and wanted everyone as equal without any strata or differentiation in a commune. This, would kill productivity and the country will enter dark ages until the day someone in the country succesfully increase productivity.

Rather than to have a welfare state, what is the way forward?

The way forward is to encourage, the citizens to be more productive. As the citizen is more productive, the citizens will earn and be motivated, while the country produce better result, better GDP and improved their standing in the world. 

With higher productivity, will come higher income and debt will be more manageable whether it is for the citizen or the country.

In summary, make sure our productivity is high and debt lower than income and income lower than productivity so that debt is manageable and our country is competitive in the world economy. 

Fate favoured those who are prepared, 

Dr. Lion. 

How to survive the apocalypse of everything collapse.

 Say one day a person saw a black cat and he decided to sell all his stock because he associate black cat as a bad omen.

His selling result in a stampede in the stock market leading to more selling, margin call, limit down and suspension of the stock. 

This is theory of reflexity by George Soros. 

If malaysian stock collapse the winner will be those who are flush in ringgit or what we say cash is king. 

If say, a financial crisis happen in malaysia and people start running for safe heaven and start leaving malaysia in trove. The winner will be foreign currency.

If the world were to enter a financial crisis, be in subprime mortgage or covid. The next safe heaven is US dollar. US dollar is known as the american gold or the ultimate safe heaven. 

If US dollar collapse then the financial world will enter dark ages, whereby only commodity, gold and crypto survived as they are people's food, God's money and people's money respectively. 

However, when money or more exact USD is no more in existence there will not be buyer for your food, gold or crypto as people will not accept a demoted US dollar as a medium of exchange.

But, people still need to eat, stay and continue with their daily life. So, they will resort to barter trade. In barter trade, we need a coincidence of wants. 

If there is no coincidence of wants, we need a medium of exchange. During this trying time when the USD collapse the best medium of exchange would be gold, silver and crypto. 

Gold and silver had stood the test of time since the eqyptian as a medium of exchange. So no doubt, it will still be relevant during the everything collapse environment. 

Crypto on the other hand is the new revolution in cash technology as a medium of payment. Which can hopefully withstand the test of time. However, crypto is not tangible as it will be lost if the world wide web or Internet when down or not functioning making crypto a high risk investment during this trying time.

During this time of financial tribulation, investment such as automobile, mansion, antique, watches, precious gems and everything that glitters will not be gold and will enter as rubbish grade investment. In WW2, everyone is only interested in survival which is food and shelter, making demand for luxury goods non existence all together. 

Therefore, during this trying time the best investment is a safe place to stay, food supply and precious metal such as gold and silver. We must thank God for the good days and also the bad days as we know God creat one and another.

The best advice is to depend on God's grace and mercy. God's mercy on our wrongdoing and sin as we repent and God's grace on our lifes during financial tribulation. 

Moral of the story: It is better to be 20 years earlier than one day late when everything collapse occurs.

May God's Mercy be with you now and forever.

Be Bless, 

Dr. Lion. 

Ugly effect of inflation on our purchasing power

 Inflation is the monster in the bag in our daily lives.

Based on such premise, inflation in Malaysia will double every 10 to 12 years. 

Say, we will to live for another 48 years that is around the year 2070. How much inflation would be and how much we would need to survive on a minimum income?

The more we delve into the past, the more we can see the future as expounded by Sir Winston Churchill.

Let us go back to 1990. In the year 1990 the price of a bowl of mee is 2 ringgit. Now in 2023 it is around 8 ringgit. So, for the span of 30 years the price of food increased by 4x.

Based on such premise, inflation multiply by 2x every 12 to 15 years with ceteris paribus whereby everything else remain constant. 

So, back to our projection from 2023 to 2070. That would be 48 years or 4 cycle of 12 years each. This means inflation is going to multiply by 16x.

So, the price of a bowl of mee which is 8 ringgit multiply by 16 would be 128 ringgit. Someone who need to survive on 2k ringgit per month, will be in need of 32k per month to survive in 2070.

However, this calculation is flaw and will not predict accurately as price of some of the goods and service we consume in life will not be elastic to inflation such as telephone bills, bank loans, house rental and medical bills and insurance . Therefore, we are partially safe from the ills of inflation due to time factors. 

Back to such scenario, it would be wise and prudence to divide the price of food and monthly expenses into half for 2070. Therefore we would need 16k ringgit per month to survive and a bowl of mee would cost us 64 ringgit per bowl. 

Making cash the worst investment. Therefore, it is advisable to invest more in asset class that fall under the acronym Grab, Ground, Gasoline, Gold, Gourd and Gun. 

But one thing for sure, inflation will show her ugly face and eat our saving if we cannot multiply our asset by 6 percent per year on average.

Why is this so? This is because if it take 12 years to double on inflation, this means, inflation would grow at a rate of 6 percent per year making investment that earn less than 6 percent per year negative return if inflation is taken into account.

That's why the best is to leave our future in the hand of God and build treasure in heaven where moth cannot destroy and thieves cannot steal, whereby where our heart is there is also our future. 

Charlie Munger, said that if we know where we are going to die and we stop going there, we will definitely going to be safe. 

Moral of the story: Fear God the begining of wisdom and Fate favor those who are prepared. 

In God we trust, 

God bless you, 

Dr. Lion. 

The Generational End Game of different asset class.

 "A thing is worth how much a buyer willing to pay"

Based on the above statement coin by Adam Smith, we can see the stimulation effect of different economic cycle and the effect of the generational endgame of different asset class.

Asset class are something that people see of monetary value. 

The asset class can be cowry shell, cows, tulip, salt, silver coin or paper money  depending on the hype and demand for them by the people living during a particular era.

Currently the asset class that i will discuss about will be mainly stock, gold and precious metal, crypto, property and REITS, antique, arts as well as cash. 

Stock will be a certificate that we partly own a company. Stock will have buyer and seller but they will be subjected to extreme price due to bipolar nature of stock participants which is bullish due to greed and bearish due to fear. We should be greedy when others were fearful and fearful when others will greedy. 

Recession: Stock will drop extensively. 

Inflation: Stock that have good asset backing will go up extensively.

Hyperinflation: Inflation proof stock such as Grab, Ground, Gasoline, Gold, Gourd and Gun will do extensively well.

End game: Every eighty years there will be a superbear and superbull due to the primary cycle or debt cycle. There will be bearish for one to two years or bullish every two to four years due to secondary cycle. The tertiary or yearly cycle will make the stock on uptrend or downtrend. No matter how good or how bad we are at stock picking we will be wiped off during the superbear cycle like the great depression in 1920s, asian financial crisis in 1998s, dotcom bubble in 2000s, subprime crisis in 2010s, Covid pandemic in 2020s. Stock can drop from few hundred to few dollar in 2000s dotcom bubble and 2010s subprime crisis whereby AIG and Citibank drop till 1 dollar. During Covid pandemic in 2020s stock drop from few dollars to few cents or go bankrupt all together like JC Penny stock. In conclusion, stock is gambling due to extreme greed and fear of participants and cash is king. If we are trapped in the great superbear stampede our result is that we will lose all our saving and worse of all become insolvent, emotional stress and suicidal whereby many people commit suicide during the great depression in 1920s and asian financial crisis in 1998. The only way to overcome this problem is by buying only good investment grade stock and not buying stock hype at the moment as all that glitters is not gold, diversify across the board and diversify across asset class. Just remember price is what we pay and value is what we get. 

Gold and precious matter on the other hand will always remain the status quo during inflation which means gold is good as a storage of value but not a good medium of speculation. If interest rates drop demand of gold would increase and vice versa. 

Recession: Price of Gold will drop due to lower demand. 

Inflation: Price of Gold will go up with inflation due to the nature as a storage of value. 

Hyperinflation: Price of Gold will remain their purchasing power even when paper currency is useless.

End game: Gold had been able to withstand the test of time, but we cannot fill our stomach with gold during war, pestilence or famine. Price of Gold drop during covid pandemic and rose dramatically due to quantitative easing.

Crypto is akin to nasdaq or technology stock but crypto have higher risk to reward ratio that is ten time more volatile than stock. 

Crypto can drop from hundred dollar to less than 0.000001 sen for each crypto like what happen to an infamous crypto term luna. Making billionaire become pauper with less than a thousand dollar in the span of few days. 

End game: Crypto is more like russian roulette if stock is more like gambling on the roulette wheel. In russian roulette either you win the spoilt or you kill yourself in the process. Many people commit suicide due to loss in luna. 

Property on the othet hand have a good storage value buy will depends on the personal disposable income of the citizen. If the PDI is high there will be high demand for property and property price will rise. If the PDI drop there will not be demand for property and price will drop.

REITS are the same as property but is easily tradeable without the need to sell as a piecemeal, high administrative fees, banking loans and repair as REITS is manage by professional with yearly income of 85 percent distributed as dividend. 

Recession: PDI drop and people will have problem servicing their loan. Property price will drop extensively due to low demand as there will be more motivated seller than buyer. 

Inflation: Property will go up depending on location and buyer ability to get bank loan with a ceiling price due to PDI. 

Hyperinflation: Property price will hyperinflate extensively. However, there will be price but no buyer as there is not much motivated buyer with PDI to buy from you at hyperinflated price unless your property is at prime location that foreigners with foreign currency would be happy to invest in.

Antiques and arts stand by itself as many people like to reminiscent of the past. The value of antique will increase overtime as there is more awareness and demand but supply reduce extensively. 

Here, a thing is worth how much a buyer willing to pay and when there is a motivated buyer the price will be higher and the price will be lower when there is motivated seller. 

So, price fluctuate alot on the short horizon of every boom and bust cycle depends on the general economy. However, if we take the long term horizon of more than 5 years the price will be usually on the upcycle. Price will usually go up by then as new generation and new player enter the market. Therefore, arts and antique is a patience game and only suitable for those with deep pockets as it will go up extensively when there is massive increase in PDI during good times and vice versa. 

Recession: Price will drop extensively as demand dried up and there will be mostly motivated seller during this time.

Inflation: Price will up depend on the rarity of the items and availability of PDI. There will be more newcomer becoming motivated buyer as they will be buying the items as collection. 

Hyperinflation: During this time, arts will be hyperinflated as well but there will be difficulty to find buyer as there will be price but no demand. If you live in a hyperinflated country it is better to sell your items in a neighbouring country that can better appreciate the price of your art or collectible antique.

Endgame: If you are in need of cash, this is not an asset class to keep as it is very difficult to find buyer and during bad times buyer will press you for a very low price, you might need to sell at a loss.

Lastly, we will talk bout cash. Cash is the heart of every transaction that we use for pricing. Without cash all that we can do is barter trade. 

Recession: Cash will be in high demand and cash is king. 

Inflation: Cash will be in demand but the purchasing power will drop, making more money required to buy the same item of desire. 

Hyperinflation: Cash will be useless as a medium of exchange and this makes lives difficult for the citizen of the country such as what happen to Wilmar Republic, Hungary, Federated United States and recently Zimbabwe and Venezuela. Honestly, there is and will not be any currency that survived more than two hundred years in the history of mankind. In a hyperinflated country, the citizen will spend the money as fast as they obtained it as price will increased more than 50 percent every other months.

Endgame: There is no currency that survive more than 200 years in the history of mankind as currency will soon be printed to oblivion. 

Moral of the story: Diversify your asset class and remember to build your asset in heaven where moth cannot destroy and thieves cannot steal. 

Bon Voyage, 

Dr. Lion. 

Survival mentality in the dark days to come.

 If we look into the past, it is more about regret.

If we look into the future, it is more about fear of the unknown. 

So, how we overcome fear of the unknown?

We overcome fear of the unknown by quantifying the fear. 

Say, we are fearful of our future. What we can do?

First, if the thing is left to chance, we assume the worse case scenario. 

If the thing is left to decision, we assume that we will make the best decision. 

Based on these two premise, our decision and emotional make up during a disaster will eventually make us or break us.

How do we make the best decision?

It is by having wisdom to quantify the risk and to be fearful of God and surrender to God.

Wise man eye is in the head and if God is for you, nobody can be against you.

So, we will quantify the risks that can happen to us and our nation in the future.

There are a few bad  disaster that can happen to the world in the declining order:

1.apocalypse

2. Nuclear war and nuclear winter

3.Regional war

4. Natural disaster like earthquake, flood, meteorite attack

5.Pestilence

6.Famine

7. Anarchy

8. Hyperinflation 

9. Depression. 

10. Inflation. 

All this might or might not happen to us and our country in the future, but the probability of these things happening will be more higher with the end times with the adverse effect from such disaster reduce in declining order.

After we have, quantified risk. We must have a plan to survive if such disaster were to strike. 

For apocalypse, there is not much we can do except to surrender our life to God. 

In a nuclear attack, if we survive the nuclear winter, we need to look for basic necessity and barter trade.

In a regional war, we need to migrate to other peaceful nation and to rebuild our life there.

In a natural disaster, if we survive, we need to rebuild our life and savage what is left.

In pestilence, we need to take preventive measures and seek medical care where appropriate.

In famine, we need to find place to plant and harvest our own crops or migrate to other better place.

In anarchy, we need to defend ourself with weapons and seek protection from local authority. 

In hyperinflation, we need to work or export goods to neighbouring country that have stable currency. During Good days we can prepare for hyperinflation by investing in God's money which is Gold or silver as well as People's money which is crypto. 

If recession strike, we need to reduce our consumption or best is to live one or two strata of cheaper lifestyle. 

In inflation, we spend only on the necessity, save in Gold or silver  or crypto for a raining days and if possible plant our own foods. 

Most important of all, we need God to shine his face on our life. 

If God is for us nobody can be against us. 

Moral of the story: It is better to be 20 years early than a day late. 

God's Mercy Endures Forever, 

Dr. Lion. 

The more we delve into the past, the more we can see the future.

 In the current technological advance civilization, the more we delve into the past, the more we can see the future.

Based on such premise, the modern world is facinated about the new technology for instance there is a craze about the newest iPhone that we can set our eyes on.

However, technology will reach a level whereby there will not be much difference between the previous and latest model, whereby, handphone that is smaller than our palm will not be technologically feasible. Maybe a phone watch or hologram phone will be more feadible with satelite communication present in the film terminator. 

Back to commerce, paper currency make it easier for us to fulfil all our needs and wants.

However, digital currency will take over paper currency with the might of google pay, samsung pay, apple pay or touch and go.

With the demise of the paper currency and adoptation of digital currency, civilization will change forever.

One group of people, will then adopt crypto sooner or later as no more will our money be in control of central bank or the government. This will happen to the masses. 

Another group of people will be reminiscent of the past and collect paper currency as an art. The rich and mighty are advent art collector because art is rare and price increase from time to time.

There will be a time, whereby central bank will stop producing paper currency all together and we will be force to digitalise our currency. When that time occur paper currency will be an art and their price rise tremendously. 

Take for example raleigh bicycle or motorcycle with pedals in the 1940s, when they become obsolete the price rise tremendously. An antique pedal bike can worth 50k in today's money. Same with antique radio, iron and gramma phone.

Therefore, the more we delve into the past the more we can predict the future. 

Bless is those who can predict the future accurately and win. 

Bless 2023,

Dr. Lion

A thing is worth how much a buyer willing to pay.

 Adam Smith coin the adage, "A thing is worth how much a buyer willing to pay."

Based on the premise, lets us see all the asset class that we posses and the valuation of those asset. 

Say, we are an investor. Our nominator is stock and our denominator is ringgit. If stock drop, ringgit will go up. 

If ringgit go down, foreign currency, gold, silver and crypto respectively will go up.

If foreign currency will go down, US dollar will go up.

If US dollar go up, then recession will set in and Quantitative Easing will happen when there is recession. 

With Quantitative Easing, US dollar and interest rates will drop, this will spur the growth cycle and more commerce and trading activity will be in demand. 

With demand, people will be richer and they buy more goods, more stock and inflationary goods such as Gold, Silver, house, automobile and antique will be more in demand. 

Then the cycle of stock-ringgit-foreign currency-USD-inflationary goods will repeat itself. 

Moral of the story: Those who can predict the trend of the market win. 

The more we delve into the past the more we can see the future.

Bless 2023,

Dr. Lion