Contented Living: Parables of The Fisherman and the Businessman

Today, I will discuss the parables of the fisherman and the businessman.

In a certain town in Damascus exist a fisherman, we call him Elvis and a businessman we call him Warren.

Elvis was happy as long as he catches 3 fishes daily and goes back to enjoy happy and quality time with his family.

As fated by God, one day Elvis and Warren path cross.

So, Warren the rich and clever man met Elvis the contented happy guy.

As always when two minds meet, they will always exchange.

Warren, suggest to Elvis to catch more fish "maybe 10 in a day as a start."

Elvis asked then "what should I do?"

Warren says "save the money, hire more people, catch more fish."

Elvis asked then "what should I do?"

Warren continues "then buy boats and bigger boats to catch more fish in deeper water."

Elvis asked then "what should I do?"

Warren continue "then get it listed in Wall Street where all the money is made"

Elvis asked then "what should I do?"

Warren sum it up "then enjoy all your time with your family, of course"

Elvis answered, "isn't that I am doing."

Elvis then enlightens Warren "You might control all the money in the world, but without God, in your heart, you will always feel empty and fall to temptations of sin and never content with our lot on earth. Our current place on earth is only a transition journey before our final destination - heaven or hell. If you are a slave to God; the devil doesn't have a stake on you anymore as no one can be a slave to two masters."

Warren "Gulp with fear"

- The End -

God Bless You.


Yours Sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

The Vivid Country

The world as we know today is divided into few continents

1. Asia
2. America
3. Africa
4. Europe
5. Oceania
6. Poles

If we want to stay on a continent and thrive well. We need a few parameters.

1. Safety from war and prosecution - 1,2,4,5
2. Free from natural disaster - 1,4,5
3. Stable and moderate government - 1,2,4,5
4. Low cost of living - 1,3
5. Good health care - 2,4,5
6. Good telecommunication - 2,4
7. Good transportation - 2,4
8. Peace - 1,5
9. Greenery - 1,3,5
10. Biodiversity and sustainable growth- 1,4,5

If we were to dissect further.

A person who chooses a cheap but peaceful greenery lifestyle would choose Asia.., with the Asia cubs such as Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand as a great choice.

A person who wanted peaceful greenery with pristine lifestyle would choose Oceania with New Zealand and Australia as the first choice.

A person who wanted a highly modern quality living would choose Europe with Switzerland as their best choice.


Caption: Malaysia is the only Asia country in Top 10 Forbes list to retire in 2017.

In god we trust.

Yours sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

Types of currency during economic crisis.

During an economic crisis, a currency that will be used must be something that is of value to the seller for barter trade.

This is because, during an economic crisis, deflation will occur initially, followed by hyperinflation and finally currency collapse.

Therefore, the currency is basically useless.

So, what is valuable then?

Things that are essential for our daily life such as:

1. Food
2. Clothes/blanket/shoes/camping gear
3. Clean water supply - water filter
4. Ground - local hideout
5. Gasoline
6. Gun
7. Medicine - essentials, painkiller, bandages, antibiotics
8. Cash - local, foreign, silver, gold.
9. Lighter,fire,cigarettes,woods
10. Ethnic valuables - amulets, keris, radio with dynamos, transport, watches, gems, stones.
11. Survival skills - foods, medical, security, agriculture, fisheries, hunter.
12. Security forces.

Doing this trying time staying calm, rational and surrendering one life to fate will ensure a higher probability of survival.

In whatever crisis, those who are rational when everyone tends to be an irrational win.

In god we trust - thy heart, thy soul, thy life.

https://youtu.be/xsu_FZXHVHU

https://youtu.be/GAi56aOTrIc

Yours sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

Marketing: Philip Kotler and the 4Ps of marketing

Any student that start to study marketing, would need to read Philip Kotler's book.

Philip Kotler is known as the father of marketing, as such, Hippocrates is the father of medicine.

Kotler's 4ps are product, place, price, and promotion.

Without those 4, marketing does not work.

1. Product - we need a product that solves peoples problems or redefines the marketplace or better a trendsetter. Quality is also an essential component.

2. Place - we need a market for it, whether generic or niche - we need a marketplace or product that people wants to be based on the recent trend.

3. Price - we need a competitive price, not too low, not too high or what we say "Goldilocks pricing"

4. Promotion - we need to let the whole world know that we mean business based on social media so that we are visible and track our prospect via segmental marketing.

Let us discuss an example.

Say, I am selling my books.

What I need to have

1. A killer product whereby my book starts a paradigm shift.

2. A good market place such as Amazon's Kindle

3. Price should be competitive and as low as possible to make it affordable for the generic market or high price for the limited edition of my book to make it a collectible piece.

4. Promotion, I will use social media for my promotions such as Google blog, facebook, twitter, and Instagram. On top of that, I will give a lot of free gift and freebies to make my book visible.

 I will also constantly saturating the marketplace to make people feel that they miss something out if they don't read my book.

Psychological marketing states that a lot of people fear to be left out in a trend due to "following the jones" mentality in the west or what should we say "kiasu and kiasi" in Singaporean laymen terms.

Hopefully, these bits of advice help, those of you, who are marketer outside.

In God we trust - thy heart, thy soul, thy life.

Yours sincerely,

DrLion.

Survival of the most adaptable.

In the future knowledge rule.

So, those who control commerce via distribution channel or those who control food will rule the world.

Those who control the distribution channel will tax the goods at it get transfer among the intermediaries.

Those who control food., control the basis of our existence. Do you know that the French revolution starts because of the feminist movement against the queen for hoarding food? The French woman other than elegant start the first revolution, because they cannot see their children die of starvation and seeing that the queen of France store food in her granaries, while the second class starve to death. That's why the french revolution started and democracy was born or what we say people power was born.

Always remember, the hand that "shake the cradle can destroy the world",,,,,,, this is based on Napolean Bonaparte own words.

God bless.


Yours sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

Economic crisis and the transference of wealth.

The 21st century is an era of knowledge.

Everyone says that the financial crisis is bad.

It is really so?

The answer is no.

Why?

Because, in a financial crisis, there will be a transference of wealth from the unprepared to the prepare.

That's why buffet always joke "when the tide is down, we know who is swimming naked"

The elite have prepared themselves for the coming financial crisis?

Are you prepare?

Prepare for liquid asset transfer? Food shortage? Security? Political crisis? Safety during a disaster?

If u are then u are safe. If not, you better pray hard that those things that we are unprepared to come to pass.

Murphy law states that "Things that we are prepared for seldom come to fruition, but bad luck catch up with the unprepared...lets see the prove....toast bread will always land on the side with the cream and make the kitchen so messy...why can't it land on the unbuttered side....murphy law at work.

So, if we are prepared and insured, bad luck seldom comes to fruition. If we know, Murphy's law we should then profit from it.

1. Setback, bounce back

2. Life gives u a lemon, make a lemonade.

3. God delay are not god denial.


Try set out from the comfort of our life and don't see life from a "tinted glass".

Remember "we are a spiritual being with human experience"


Always repeat in yourself "I am feeling healthy, wealthy and terrific"

Always have positive reasons for everything that will make your life worth living.

Rather than "why me?".

Ask "how?".

As all problem are man-made and are usually solvable if u put the right key for the right lock and always be prepared as "man proposes, God disposes" as "tough time never last, tough people do"


If u are feeling down "try put meaning in other people life, it works wonder"


If you are in a crisis, the best thing to do is basically " just kneel and pray". Crisis would eventually happen due to human exhuberance.



God bless us all.



Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

Financial Crisis: Going against nature.

The financial crisis is due to the fact that we are going against nature or more crudely due to the law of the god.

The following country is prime examples of how leaders going against nature, leading to greater and greater crisis, leading eventually to great catastrophe.

1. Zimbabwe - nationalization of wealth from the have to have not.

2. Venezuela - one product economy

3. Greece - social welfare economy and low productivity.

4. China (Emperor era) - bad social reform.

All these are the reasons for the fall of all great heroes and wonders of the yesteryears. What other common things that they have in common?

Yes. Corruption.

The first thing that China and Saudi did with their new leadership is to kill corruption at its core. China executes his second most top leader for alleged corruption and Saudi executes his prince for murder.

Feudal China failed because of corruption and opium.


Corruption is going against the law of God.


"May the law of God prevail."

God bless the world!


Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

Commodity will soar to the sky.

The commodity is the new gold.

Why?

China had made the decisive step to discard the petrodollar and Saudi prima facie cases against corruption would shift money from the rich to hard assets.

What are hard assets, it is something that is tangible or essential for the masses - grab, ground, gas, gun, and gold.

However, the personal disposable income of the masses have a drop in a certain country and property bubble is at an all-time high, making highly unlikely to gain much in a property.

Therefore, I will be going after food commodity, oil, and gas and to a lesser degree metal as a medium of hedging.

China also has so much USD to dump or what should I say convert to commodity, especially edible and industrial commodity.

"Commodity rules!"

God blesses us!

Have a productive day ahead.

Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

Types of Transaction Opportunities and how to seize it.

In any business opportunity, it is divided into 4 quadrants or types:

Quadrant 1 - High probability of winning with high return. I would term this shooting star.

Quadrant 2 - High probability of winning with low return. I would term this dogs.

Quadrant 3 - Low probability of winning with high return. I would term this cash cow.

Quadrant 4 - Low probability of winning with low return. I would term these crocs.

In every transaction - whether business, gambling, investing, stock or dividends yielding - I will only invest in shooting star or cash cow.

I don't mind missing all the dogs or crocs, as buffet always say

"One or two Highly probabilistic winning trade a year is better than thousand of aimless trading"

Transacts more in shooting star, some in cash cows and avoid dogs and crocs, altogether will bring your investment to the superhighway.

Fate favored those who are prepared.

God bless all us with a productive life.

Good luck! Amugo.

Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

Experiencing Total Collapse and Building Up Again in a New Country

Say, if a country collapses, experience food shortage and fall into anarchy?

Take Southern Vietnam, Zimbabwe, Nigeria or Venezuela as current reference.

What do we do?

Run for our lives, of course.

To the best country of course. 

Why? 

We want a good country that will provide security and reliable healthcare when we are an older person and good education for our children and a new "head-start" for our family there.

But, what to bring with us to the new world?

Knowledge, skill and liquid cash will be ideal.

Therefore, we need to be prepared with the appropriate knowledge and skill to survive in the new world.

The new world that I will choose will be New Zealand.

No matter how much money we have, we will still lose out to others there as there are many billionaires soaking their cash with lands there.

Nevertheless, there is a flash of silver lightning from the wisdom of Jesse Livermore 

"When a rich guy and a clever guy meet, they exchange."

Therefore, the bigger the inequality in wealth, the bigger the exchange happen if we are knowledgeable.

So, what type of knowledge that we wanna bring to the new world?

I personally, will enhance my current knowledge and skill on the following and bring to the new world:

1. Stock trading skills - the fastest way to generate wealth if you have the right trading strategy.

2. Gambling skills - residual income to set you up initially

3. Trading skills - setting up a commercial entrepreneur business is ideal

4. Lecturing skills - direct income by educating the future generation.

5. Medical skills - treating patients and other fellow refuges in time of crisis.

"Total surrender to the almighty is essential"

"If you have the belief that you can move mountains, you can do wonders"

God Bless Our Future!

Good Luck! in the new world.

Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

The imminent war in north korea and those that benefits.

A man had always fight over oil and yes this time North Korea had to be a sacrifice in the name of oil or we say world growth and peace, whereby, every decade, the weaker nation is a sacrifice for the greater cause of prosperity.

War can be in a day, a month, a year or in a decade but it is going to happen soon - I prefer to be 20 years early than 1 day late.

It was reported that Trump orders the attack on North Korea yesterday but was short of democratic vote and Putin move Satan 2 to NK to fend against American invasion.

Recapping history, oil was cheaper than water in the 1960s and the Arabs and Venezuela were smart, they form OPEC cartel and start the Arab War on Israel which make oil jump to US 70 in 1970.

So, now the story is different. BRICS and Venezuela are dumping Petrodollar. So, America has no choice, but to start a war on multifront to get loyalty and preserve its economy and maintain world hegemony and loyalty to the almighty fiat USD.

War will move up the price of commodity especially gasoline and grab, as supply becomes a scarcity.

So, the benefit of the war are:
1. America, the biggest shale oil producer.
2. OPEC country
3. Malaysia
4. Rusia and Venezuela.

Biggest loser is
1. North Korea, obviously due to loss of infrastructure and civilians.
2. South Korea
3. China
4. Japan
5. Russia, because of war at their backyard
6. Syria, making it difficult for Russia to fight the war on 2 continents.
7. Venezuela, Russia, and China reduce international presence due to war in their backyard.

Hints: Malaysia stock market will drop to around 1500, but commodity counter especially palm oil and O&G counter would bode very well.

"I am a cynic hope to be proven wrong"

God bless the world and may peace prevail.

Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

Spinning Wheel: Velocity of Money is the Vehicle of the rich.

Let me put up with you two scenario.


There are 2 businessmen with other things being equal or ceteris paribus.


Scenario 1: A. Donald, a Politician with a turnover of once a month and a 5 bagger profit.


Scenario 2: B. Patrick, a Businessman with a turnover of once a week and a 2 bagger profit.



The hypothetical test:

How much does each of them have at the end of 1 month? 6 month? 1 year?. If both of them start with USD 1,000 as their initial investment.



1) Situational M1:

S1: Donald will have = 1k x 5^1 =  5k

S2: Patrick will have = 1k x 2^4 = 8k





2) Situational M6:

S1: Donald will have = 1k x 5^6 =  3125k

S2: Patrick will have = 1k x 2^(4x6) = 16,777,216k

3) Situational M12:

S1: Donald will have = 1k x 5^12 =  244,140,625k or nearly USD 244 billion dollar.

S2: Patrick will have = 1k x 2^(4x12) = 10^18 or nearly USD billion billion dollar.


What about a lifetime of investing with the correct principles and disciplines? The results surely work wonders.



This shows that identifying bagger stock and activating the spinning wheel works wonder to many.


No, wonder buffet is so rich with the magic of compounding.



"May the blessing of the Almighty be with all of us"


God Bless!



Yours sincerely,


Dr. Lion.

The Ultimate Way to Richest.

The only way to be rich is to follow the following steps and repeat the sequences many times.


1. Earn the money and chain it. So, that money becomes your slave.


2. Save the money. So, you imprison money and money become your eternal slave.


3. Invest the money. So, that the money multiplies and brings all their child as a slave to serve you.


4. Protect the money. So, that money and their children exclusively belongs to you only.




Repeat this principle and you will be rich.




Jesse Livermore sum it best

"We cannot go against good principles, we can only break our self going against good principles"


"God Bless us hunting in the wilderness for acres of diamonds in the Amazon jungles full of crocs!"



Yours Sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

Mathemathicians are fooled by randomness

If Maths are really the only pre-requisite to be rich, Maths' Professor with IQ of Alpha, Beta, Kapha should be the richest man on earth.

But, this is not.

Why?

They are fool by randomness.

They pride on their "random walk theory"

In nature, things are a disorder when the sample size is small and only become more predictable if the sample size is big.

That's why predictably does not always work and things always work against the common norm in small sample size.

Even, if something has small finite probability in the past, if it happens, the probability is then 1.

Probability of a past event is 1.

Probability of flapping of wings of a butterfly causing a tornado is small, but if it happens, the past probability is 1.

A small event can change the world and Archimedes sum it best "if I have enough leverage, I can move the world"

Therefore, adaptability to change to surrounding, flexibility and some prayers works wonders.

Warren Buffet was a master of such circumstances.

Warren decided not to go to Boston but to go to University of Nebraska under the tutelage of Benjamin Graham that taught him value investing aka "buying a dollar for a penny."  Graham was master of value investing beyond his time and the main investor in GEICO insurance.

He knows that the best strategy is "to wait for people to drop dollar notes on the floor and he just pick it up" or in other words "fish in trouble waters."

Buffet on the other hand, always profit from others mistakes or exuberant, which make him extremely rich.

Therefore, the truth is human nature is "never random - because emotion is energy in motion and energy is motion is always in disequilibrium making it non-random or predictable"

whereby,

"bull starts in extreme bearishness and bear starts in extreme bullishness."

Buffet always joke "Bull make money, Bear make money, Pig get slaughter."

But, who am i to argue wit the Buffets? Ha Ha.   

"Knowledge and the adaptability with our financial environment and surrendering to our fate as determine by our creator works better than the almighty science per se!"

God bless us!

Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

The main beneficiary and loser in a downturn in economy.

When an economy suffering, wealth changes hands from the unprepared to prepare.

Scenario
1. Stagflation. Profit is the boss. Loss is a worker and saver. Therefore, we must prepare to be our own boss.

2. Deflation. Loss is boss and asset owner as nobody is interested in material goods and is more interested in the preservation of cash as their future cash flow is very uncertain.  Profit is liquid cash owner. The axioms - In the world of the blind, one eye jack is the king. Therefore, we must always have liquid cash in hand.

3. Hyperinflation. Loss is Cash owner. Profit is debtor and farm producer as well as those with a source of income from foreign trade or foreign exchange as well as the precious metals. Therefore, we must have a stake in export-oriented food commodity company or precious metal company.

So, in conclusion, the utopian dream is to be our own boss, flush with various foreign currency and ownership stake in plantation company or precious metal local and abroad to survive all eventuality.

"In God We Trust and Knowledge is Power"

Good luck! Amigo!

Yours sincerely,
Dr. Lion.

Value of an Antique.

If you buy an item. There are inherent 5 different types of value.

1. Nominal or Base value at the cost
2. Junk value at liquidation
3. Artistic value due to artistic or brand name like Versace
4. Gothic or Gems value due to the one of its kind only in existence giving rise to status, clout, prestige and even respect from a senior member of society.
5. Priceless value due to inherited from parents, head of clans or government.

Good luck! Amigo!

Yours sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

Traits of a Successful Business Model

If I were to be a president of a newly created nation and I decided to increase the economic viability of my country. Which criteria should I look into?

Criteria of a successful business:
1. High expertise in the industry
2. Low-cost structure to start and operate
3. High barrier of entry and long patented period
4. Having a clout monopoly....oligopoly with tollgate concepts
5. Few competitors
6. Not affected by external factors
7. Need few workers and allowed factory automation
8. Fulfill safety, humanitarian and OSHA standards.
9. Homegrown advantage
10. Least regulation by higher authority.
11. Contributing to society wellbeing
12. Added value or solving other peoples problems or misery
13. Contributing to greener technology.
14. Broad base customer fan.
15. Well the known brand name
16. Good and pleasant marketing and sales force

Wow! Such a great company if exist in the utopian state is a great boon to mankind.


If you have stumble upon such business. Congratulations! Your cash registra will ring non stop.


"If turn enough pabbles you would find diamond"


Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

The Stages that besieged the collapse of the economy of an empire.

When an empire enters his twilight years. The nation's people will be more materialistic, less productive, enjoying the luxury of life and self-centered.

This leads to the creation of a divided class of society. The "haves" and the "have not" or the rich/poor or the master/slave or more accurately a classical classes society.

The rich are usually the boss and the poor are usually the worker.

The boss will demand more productivity and a higher price for their goods.

While, the worker will demand less job, higher pay and lower price of goods.

However, here the boss controls the financial wealth and the demand and command system in the economy.

Therefore, the boss will usually win in the end. As a result, the price of goods increase and the worker must be more productive or will be replaced and become unemployed.

As a result, stagflation occurred. Stagflation is inflation with a recession and massive unemployment at the same time. This occurred currently in many developed countries especially USA, Euro Zone, and Canada.

After sometime, worker unemployed, no more fund to buy goods, leads to nationwide depression.

When the government, decided to generate fiat money from the magic printing press during the depression, hyperinflation shows his ugly picture.

That's basically, how stagflation leading to deflation and eventually hyperinflation.

"God bless us"

Jolly! Good Luck!


Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

Ultimate Marketing Strategy of New Kid on the Block

What is the ultimate purpose of marketing?

To sell goods to consumers. Therefore a consumer is always king and is always right. Therefore, the best marketer must know the consumer well.

The consumer is a fan of branded products, which give them identity, prestige, belonging, status and solidarity to their fellow friends and family.

Therefore, the consumer is a fan of branded products.

So, u are a less well known and abandon new kid with products that nobody knows. Will they care about your existence? Definitely no. They will see you as a typical nuisance that is after their hard earned money. So, what can you do to market your product to them?

Knowledge and persistence is the only arsenal a new kid on the block have on the consumer revolution.

The knowledge of marketing that we have about the consumer is divided into types of fans of a certain product (fan, fence sitter, enemy). In a saturated market, 90 percent of the consumers are fans of a company, which we marketer call market penetration rate. So, we are left with the 10 percent, which is the fence sitter and the disgruntle or unhappy consumer as our potential marketer. No wonder, it is so difficult to penetrate the luxurious new market.

But, if we are persistence and understand the concept of saturation and retention. We will be better off. Let me show you how.


In 100 cold calling of potential customers, we will be meeting 10 non-fans. This show the importance for us to reach a saturation point of 100 percent total rejection.

Out of the 10 non-fan, we can only retain 1, as retention rate is usually 10 percent.

This show that in order for a new kid on the block to be successful in marketing his product, he must reach the saturation point of 100 percent total rejection and is better to retain an existing customer than to get a new one.

"Time and luck wait for no man"

Good Luck! Amigo!

Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

Hyperinflation: The last nail in the coffin of the deteriorating nation.

The scary word that will bring a country down to its knee is hyperinflation. Let us define it and discuss how it happens.

Hyperinflation comes from the root word inflation, which means an increase in the price of goods or services. So, hyperinflation means a tremendous and extreme increase in the price of goods or services over time or in other words devaluation of currency (aka fiat money).

So, how hyperinflation come about? More accurately how the devaluation of currency come about?

This occurs when the money supply becomes more than the money intrinsic reserve backing. The higher the ratio, the more worthless the currency. That's why the magic printing press will quench everyone thirst of money but it would increase the ratio and make it more worthless.

So, sensible governments need to be careful with the magic printing press. But why? Gomen decided to use their magic printing press...hey presto...the answer is....mounting debt, corruption and crony capitalism.

Now, we go to the topic of hyperinflation.

Say, hyperinflation occurred. We will study those who benefit and
lost from it and how detrimental it is to the nation.

Group of people that benefit from hyperinflation
A. Farmer
B. Debtor
C. Bond seller
D. MBO
E. House owner
F. Gold owner
G. Gasoline owner and intermediaries
H. Underground economy and black market
I. Foreign Currency
J. Stock especially plantation and property

Group of people that lost from hyperinflation
A. Saving in bank
B. Pensioner
C. Bondholder
D. Lenders
E. Banks
F. Insurance policyholder with local investment link

Detrimental effects of hyperinflation
A. Food and medical shortage, starvation and spread of infectious and vector bound diseases.
B. Rioting, robbing, and ransom
C. Suicidal
D. Social unrest
E. Anarchy
F. Marshal law, compulsory acquisition of civilian rights and property...eg. military control or junta.
G. Revolution, war and social uprising
H. Political unrest
I. The collapse of a nation
J. Brain drain
K. Flight of capital to other countries
L. Massive unemployment

Hyperinflation was so bad during the Wilmar Republic in Germany in 1929 that cigarettes start to be the new currency.

"Fate favored those who are prepared"

God bless us.

"Father, Let your' will be done."

Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

The Donald Duck Economy

Winston Churchill has always say deeply that "the more we delve into the past, the more we are able to see the future."


So, thinking of our "Donald Duck Economy" we should see what happened to the past to predict the future - see what happened to the "Greece Economy, France under King Louis XV and John Law, the Republic of  China in the 1940s, Wilmar Republic, Hungary, Zimbabwe and currently Venezuela. All these are Donald Duck economy because it is an economy that is model on debt. An economy that is model on debt is not sustainable.


WHY?

Debt is the first sins of the financial system. If you created debt, you created sin. Thomas Jefferson echoes such words in the 1920s "Neither a debtor or a creditor."

If you have debt, you will have to pay back the amount you loan together with the interest.

Interest is the second sin.

Because of this second sin, "a debtor is always obliged to a creditor."


As a result of the first sin "debt" and the second sin "interest", all the economic model is in turmoil.

Debt and interest created a vicious cycle, that would swallow anything within its path, you named it - anything?


As a result, all government has to tackle debt, somehow or another?

But how?

How the government can tackle debt - the first sin?

1) Increase productivity

2) Force Borrower to cut spending - tighten the belt.

3) Austerity Measures - "Hair Cut" for defaulters so that they pay up their loans.

4) Draconian law - Transfer of wealth from "have" to "have-not"

5) Use the magic Printing Press.


These are the 5 sensible options a government can do.


If I am dying and my parting advice to my children will be "If you are hard-working, you will never die, even if you have to work in the street, for the rest of your life." This word is echoed by both Napolean Hill and Dale Carnegie as the basis of the success of post-war American.

(Caption: I been to Beijing a few years back and people are peddling the street with their fresh goods at 2 am in the cold. Can we compete with that type of productivity? No wonder the Chinese works wonders in the current era.)


However, the most government that failed as the above decided to follow the Donald Duck economy and activated the magic Printing Press, which seems to works wonders like magic in wonderland.


"Hey Presto, Money is created with the printing press."


"Fate favored those who are prepared."


Good Luck, Amigo!


Yours sincerely,

Dr Lion.

 

 

Sign of A Great Economic Superhouse

The following criteria are needed if a country if to reign superiority based on the economic ground in the coming decade:

1. The country utilized a lot of leverage on good debt
2. The debt is less than income so that the country is sustainable
3. The income of the citizen of the country is less than the productivity so that the country is competitive.

Any country that passes such criteria will be the next economic superpower. At the moment, I can see only china...building 81 warships at the rate of 4 shift....omg working 4x harder than the average Joe... I would not be surprised if they were to rule soon.

If history were to be used as a yardstick, Japanese work shift, Kaizen, and Kaiban,., were exemplary for older generation z of Japanese netizens.

"We are great today because we stand on the shoulder of giants"

God bless

Yours Sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

"Everything Collapse Depression" vs "Great Depression"

"Everything Collapse Depression" will happen by 2030.


Let us see what's different between "Everything Collapse Depression" and "Great Depression"


Our world economy is fueled by the following:

1) Fractional Reserve Banking
2) Leverage
3) Derivatives
4) Speculation
5) Debt
6) Worthless "Fiat Currency"


We don't have the above 6 problems as massive as we have today during the "Great Depression"


So, I believe by 2030, we will feel the "Everything Collapse Depression" happening and "Great Depression" would feel like having "a day in the wilderness" compared to the next "Financial Storm."


So, now is not the time to collect wealth, but to secure our basic necessity to survive in the next "Financial Storm." and brace for "New World Order" soon.

 
I would prefer to be "20 years earlier than 1 day late for the everything collapse depression!!!"



Moral of the story: "Build your ark or perish will be the new trend when the Everything Collapse Depression occurred" - You have been warned!



"The bigger you are the harder you fall"


"God bless the world"


Yours Sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

Marketing: Cannibalizing the Product Life Cycle

In marketing, we learn about the "Product Life Cycle" to win market share.

But, in order to make our Product Immortal or forever "Evergreen in the eye of our customer", We must learn about the Product Life Cycle.

A Product Life Cycle is divided into 4:

a) Static or Introductory Phase

b) Growth Phase

c) Maturity Phase

d) Senescence Phase

In order for our product to reach the immortal stage, we need to always cannibalize our products in the senescence phase or we will be cannibalized by a new competitor with better products, marketing or cost structure.

This is what we call "immortality marketing" in order to retain market share.

This Principle is Practice by our famous Diva singers like "Madonna" and "Jennifer Lopez."

Everything that is great will come to a pass. We cannot force something new to consumer unless we are creative and innovative with radical ideas - "Trendsetter" - See Google and Amazon for instances they go for vertical and horizontal integration.

"Time and Trend Wait for No Man"

"May your day be blessed"

Yours Sincerely,

Dr. Lion. 

Current Scenario: "Cash is King" vs "Survival of the most adaptable."

The axioms "Cash is King" means that you can get anything and rule with tons of cash.

But, I beg to differ.


Warren Buffet always has a proverb at his sleeve "A fool and his money is always parted." and "Bull make money, Bear Make money, Pig get slaughter."


So, I prefer to joint the wise man on wall street and does not buy to the words, "Cash is king."


Therefore, I prefer to follow Mahathir's principle "Knowledge-based Economy." and "The wind of change principle."


Whereby, knowledge and adaptability rules - "See tons of cash cannot save even KODAK or NOKIA when the wind of change has come."

Currently, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela are having problems of adaptability to the wind of change - "The world which is less reliant on fossil fuel but more reliant on renewable energy for our daily lives especially transportation."


Therefore, be prepared for the wind of change when the time has come - "A man had to what he had to do when the time is right."


"Knowledge and productivity will create value for society" but "anyone that is ready for the wind of change will always survive."

Darwin sums it best "Survival of the most adaptable."


Good Luck! Amigo!

Yours sincerely,

Dr. Lion.   

Graceful Investment with age

Scenario:

At the age of 24, I was doing my master and stumble upon the idea of investing. Investing was the only way out for me as I was not allowed to work during my tutelage. So, I took up investing as a source of investment. However, investment was difficult for me initially. I stumble and fall and usually, my investment result is "2 steps forward, 3 steps backward."

So, I started reading books on investment. However, nearly all the book on investment only guide the "middle class" to be "rich." These books define the middle class as those with 1 million and above. But, where and how can I get a million dollar?

Therefore, I started researching on medium call derivatives. It is a very dangerous instrument - "like the sword of domiciles - either you make it to the cathedral of success or the chicken coop" or in other words "make you rich beyond imagination or heavily in debt due to total losses."

As a result, my asset was spinning like a "yoyo" throughout my 20s - 40s.

As I am approaching my senior age, I decided that I need to embark on another concept, which is "slow and steady growth" as I am not as young as before and I cannot stomach and make back any big potential loss or setback.

So, I would convert more from playing based on speculation (like George Soros) to more value investing (like Benjamin Graham) which allocate more on "paying a penny for dollar" and growth investor (like Peter Lynch) which allocate more on "putting his money, where his mouth is".

We need to sail, within certain parameters to be successful, it is our belief system that makes us or breaks us - like what Disney says "When I believe in Miracles."

Therefore, here in an evolving timeline for investor

1) 20-40 years - Energetic, young, entrepreneurship - going for most high risk, high gain company

2) 40-60 years - Mature - going for value for money investing, if you are not rich by then, don't fumble on, we should be thinking on "security" rather than "gain" at this age.

3) > 60 years - Serving God or a higher purpose and making sure that all our family's needs are well taken care of, so that, we don't have any unfinished business when we are called by the lord.


"Time and Experience waits for no man."


Good Luck! Amigo!


Yours Sincerely,

Dr. Lion.  

Opportunity Cost of Success.

Opportunity Cost is something that we forego or denied something else due to our limited resources.

We have unlimited demand, but the resources that we have will limit us from fulfilling our unlimited demand. Therefore, we have to forego something good for something better

"Say, if we want success or riches, we need to forego the comfort and luxury that fit our current standard of living. Save it. Invest in the right instruments and soon we will be rich." - This is called delayed gratification and it is the elementary forms of success of our Chinese forefathers when they come to the new world from China.

But, in current context, a rational guy should use his limited resources to fulfill the maximum of his aggregate utilities from the unlimited demands that he has or in other words use his resources to buy things or services that matter the most to him - nutrition, health, child education, entertainment, retirement planning or even estate planning in a form of will or trust.

So, different people will have different utilities. So, will have different needs to fulfills in his life with a different set of goals and objectives and planning before the inevitable.

"Make hay when the sunshine"


Good Luck! Amigo!


Yours sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

Price: Everything that matters.

Scenario:


1) "Nobody will buy a thing that he dunno what is the price?"


2) "Nobody sane will buy a thing that he dunno what it is?"



 This shows us the importance of price in our daily life.


Therefore, how is price set:


A) Nominal Price - or what we call the real price of an object under normal circumstances.

B) Buyer Price - a price buyer willing to pay

C) Seller Price - a price buyer willing to sell

D) Settlement Price  - a price that people settle for, after a certain premium or discount to the nominal price due to condition or time factor.



Here, we will use 2 items as examples: Water and Share of a Company.


I) Water will have:

 A) Nominal Price nearly zero, because it is easily available under normal circumstances.

B) Buyer Price - In a desert and someone dying of thirst, it will have the price that someone willing to pay that is higher than gold.

C) Seller Price - During raining season, the price that seller sell is negligible.

D) Settlement Price - Water is supplied by the government with pro-rated cost with some profit via water tap to most citizens in the world.


II) Share of a company be based on:

A) Nominal Price - Price at liquidation of the company per share.

B) Buyer Price - A price as cheap as possible, so that a buyer can maximize his profit.

C) Seller Price - A price as expensive as possible, so that a seller can maximize his profit.

D) Settlement Price - A Discount to Seller Price and also a Premium to buyer Price so that both seller and buyer reach a deal.


Comments:

1) Margin is the result of seller price minus the buyer price.

2) Margin multiply by volume gives you, your profit or loss.

3) That's why in economics it's your margin and volume that counts.

4) In stock, it's your Margin of Safety and Position Sizing that matters.


"Fate Favored Those Who are Prepared"



Yours Sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

Time: Reward the Good and Punish the Mediocre

Have you heard the story that whether "it is good or bad - time will tell."


Yes.


Time is the only variable in the universe that is not a material but an acceptable concept worldwide based on the moon (lunar calendar) or the sun (solar calendar).


So, if a business is prudent and practice good business principles and skills. The company should prosper, as said by Warren Buffet "Time reward a good business and punish the mediocre."


Same with us, if

1) we are at the upper hand - the landlord or creditor with interest, time works to our best interest.

2) we are at the lower hand - the tenant or debtor, time works detrimental to us.


Another caveat is that time rewards those who are productive - more hardworking, industrialist or creative.


"Time waits for no man!"


Good Luck! Amigo!


Yours sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

Gold: World's new Currency

China had set the parity of gold at nearly 1g of gold to 1 barrel of oil.



"1 g of gold = 1 barrel of oil"

So, for simple calculation say 1 barrel of oil is USD 55.

1g of gold is USD 55.



But, China imported 800k barrel of oil per day from Saudi Arabia and pay in gold. So, in a year China will need 292 millions barrel of oil which is equal to 292 tons of gold. This would eventually dry up China and the world supply of gold, leading to an upward trajectory of gold price.



Therefore, gold parity should be set up eventually to "0.1 g of gold = 1 barrel of oil"



So, 1 g of gold equal 10 barrel of oil or USD 550.

So 1 oz of gold or 31.1g of gold should worth USD 17,105 in the near future. OMG! What a calculation.


This would eventually bring the price of 1g of silver to USD 13.75 (within the current Gold to a Silver ratio of 40:1).


If this were to happen, this would be the new beginning for the new world order using gold and silver back currency and the demised of "fiat currency."


"Gold and Silver are the currency that will remain to have storage in value!"


Good Luck! Amigo!


Yours Sincerely,

Dr Lion. 

International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the collapse of the USD by introduction of SDR by IMF in 1 January 2018.

Current scenario:


1) After China, Russia and Venezuela kill the petro-dollar

2) Russia, China as well as India trading metals such as gold and silver in their own currency.

3) International Monetary Fund (IMF) and their Special Drawing Rights (SDR) usability for international trade by 1 January 2018.


IMF is going to form a new currency called "SDR" backed by IMF for international trade, which would then replace the USD as an international currency.


IMF will kill the USD as international currency because:

1) Their created SDR.

2) Worldwide support of SDR for international trade.

3) Creation of "International Ledger Technology" for SDR by IMF.


This would lead to the demise of the USD as an international currency.

The proof is that the IMF helped UK's Citibank to produce their inaugural first bond in the form of SDR.

Does this signal the end of USD dominance? Time will tell.


Good Luck! Amigo!

"The only constant changes!"


Yours sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

Risk Management: the new Frontier in Commerce

Risk Management is more about getting the "maximization of benefit with the minimization of risk" or we say getting the ultimate point at the "cost-effectiveness curve"


Cost-Effectiveness is divided into 3 genres:

1) Cost-Benefit Analysis
2) Cost-Utility Analysis
3) Cost-Effectiveness Analysis


I won't get into all 3 in details but, I want to discuss "Risk Management"


"Risk Management" fall into the concepts of the acronym " I AM - SAFE"

1) I - RISK Identification - Identify all the risk or hazard that is around us.

2) A - RISK Assessment - Assess the severity vs the probability or chances the risk might occur.

3) M - RISK Management - Manage the risk via substitution, replacement, elimination, control or personal protective equipment (PPE).


This is basically, risk management whether in the workforce, bank, stock market or even in a disaster.


"If you manage your risk properly, the chance of an event occurring will be lower due to Murphy's law - that strike the unprepared."


"Fate favors those who are prepared."


Good Luck! Amigo!

Yours Sincerely,
Dr. Lion.

Economics: The Human Miracles

What is really Economics?

Economics is basically the study of:

1) limited resources (limited supply)
2) unlimited wants (unlimited demand)

So, we need to find an equilibrium between the limited supply and unlimited demand to determine the equilibrium point.

In normative economics, the seller would try to stretch as much the limited supply and buyer would reduce their unlimited demand in the real world as time progress, leading to cheaper and more quality goods due to the "invincible hands"

However, if some goods (luxury goods) will to be expensive, substitution goods will be more expensive as well, as there will be hoarding in the supply chain or more demand in the real world for substitution goods especially Graffian goods (Goods for the masses).

But, if luxury goods become cheap, complementary goods will be cheap because as limited demand for luxury goods will also reduce demand for ancillary goods.

Nevertheless, all these falls under the ceteris paribus concepts (everything stays equal) and laizer farrie (free economics).

What about Parallel Economics during Economics or Humanitarian Disaster?

What is important during Economics or Humanitarian disaster is still - grab, ground, gasoline, gun, and gold.

Here, the limited resources will be difficult to come by due to disruption of the supply chain and we would need to be more discreet in our choices now as we have small finite resources that we could trade for necessity of life continuum - for a person dying of thirst, water would allure him more than all the gold and diamond in the world.

Hence "water worth more than gold in the desert" and we might even see a mirage of an oasis in the desert.

So, the moral is we need to "make choice every day".

We need to make decisions based on "What gave the best utility?" or "What gives the best profit?" or "Better what gives the best profit at lowest risk?" so that we "maximize our unlimited wants with finite resources."

"Best Profit at lowest risk" is the basis of "Risk management."

Good Luck! Amigo!

Yours Sincerely,

Dr Lion.    

Fool by "Percentage Ratio Scale" and limitation of our mindest.

In School, the first arithmetic that we learn is "+", "-", "x" and "/".

As we develop further, we start to learn "%". "%" would bias our thinking and limit our ability.


Here, I prove it.

1) "+" should go with "-".

If we lose $20, it is possible for us to make $20.


2) "x" should go with "/".

If we lose 5x "say our Rm 20 become Rm 4." We should be able to make back from "Rm 4 to Rm 20." This is because if we lose 5x, it is also logic, if we, make back 5x, under the "ceteris paribus" concept which is "everything equal under normal circumstances."


3) So, if we wanna think in "%" form. Then it should be "-%" and "+%". Say "-20%" and "+20%"

Say, if we lose "-50%" of RM 20. We have a balance of RM 10. Later, when we make back "+50%" from RM 10, we will have only RM 15...But, in reality, we still lose Rm 5. Isn't this a bad scenario.

Comments:

In conclusion, the percentage will always fool us and limit our thinking. Value our winning on an absolute ratio pair of "+"&"-" and "x"&"/" would be more rewarding and increase our world of possibilities.

In stock, if we can lose by 5x during a bear market. We can also win by 5x, giving rise to the possibilities of bagger stock during bulls.

"Fate favors those who are prepared"

Good Luck! Amigo!

Yours Sincerely,

Dr. Lion.  

Consequences of Trade War between US and both Russia and China.

The US is the current champion of capitalism and democratic but is also the current champion in technological advance and number one debtor nation with 20 Trillion in sovereign nation debts.

China and Russia is the current champion in a socialistic democratic nation which is tweaked towards capitalism.

However, China is now the factory of the world with one-third of the world product is produced in China and China is the current number one creditor nation in the world.

Russia, on the other hand, is the leader in military and space technology. Americans even needed Russia's spacecraft and technology to send their astronaut to space currently.

Based on my analysis, American is driven by money and are more afraid to sacrifice their life for their nation compare to their forefathers in the "American Revolution." In America, their concept currently is "Its an honor to die for your country, but lets the other people get the honor."

On the other hand, China and Russia are based on the concepts of "All for One, One for All." like the pledge of the three musketeers, whereby they go for the common goals - "together we stand, together we perish" - they were indoctrinated with such agenda since small.

Now, back to the analysis, under the common human doctrine "a debtor is always indebted to the creditors."

1) Therefore, based on such premises. All it takes for China to crash American and Trumponomics is to sell 500 billions of bond in the open market in 5 minutes. Yup! That's All!.... Make it fast and Swift! and by the American is gone. There won't be a buyer at all. All derivatives market will be crashing to its knees. Bye! Bye! to all the great banks in America! and OMG! China holds 30% of the sovereignty bond, that will be 6 billion USD for them to unwind.
 
2) Back to Russia! Russia has advanced Missile system, Nuclear warhead in Silos and trucks and the best Electro-Magnetic Jamming System. (EMS). EMS was so successful that it makes all the American Patriot Missiles useless and even their "Aircraft Carrier" as "White Elephant" and China is going on "Cyber Warfare" and "Space Warfare" which is a new frontier that attacks GPS...without GPS, American is blinded and if you are blinded, you cannot attack an opponent because you cannot see.

3) Current Scenario on Petrol: Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela had dumped the Petrodollar for China Yuan, whereby, all Petrol transaction is traded in China Yuan.

4) Current Scenario on Metals: Gold and Silver will not be traded and manipulated in USD anymore as Russia, China and India will start trading these Metals based on their currency and there will not be a USD 0.5 spread for trading these metals when conducted respectively, based on their currency.

5) United Nation had suggested a new currency to replace the current fiat money in circulation.

(All these information are a hypothetical scenario that is important to be accountable in every market scenario).

Good Luck! Amigo!

Yours Sincerely!

Dr. Lion.

   

Collapse of The American Dream

First of all, lets us discuss the basis of economics which is inflation, recession, and depression.

Inflation means that things are getting more and more expensive or in other words, our buying power diminishes.

Inflation can be further divided into cost-push inflation and demand-pull inflation.

In demand-pull inflation, everyone is rich and they are paying more for the price of goods or in other words they are bidding up the price of goods. Which are very very classical and very unlikely to happen in the current scenario.

In cost-push inflation, the cost is rising and the seller has no choice, but to increase the price of their goods or they would suffer losses. In every transaction, every seller and buyer objective is profit. If the cost in the supply chain increases the cost to the ultimate customer would also increase eventually due to pass-over cost leading to cost-push inflation. This is the type of inflation happening worldwide.

Recession, on the other hand, means that the economy shrunken and the buying power had diminished, and there is negative growth for two consecutive quarter due to short term debt cycle which is within 10 years time frame.

Depression means that the recession is so bad due to the long term debt cycle which is within the 70 years time frame.

Stagflation means inflation and depression happen at the same time. Inflation happens at the supply side and depression happen at the demand side. Because of the high cost of living and not many people having money to buy due to unemployment. This is what happens to America and the world over.

Back in America, the debt burden is too high. Currently, the Debt Ceiling is over 20 Trillion and if you stack a US 1 dollar bill from the earth, you can build a bridge to the moon.


Keynesian Growth Theory is based on:

1) Spend all the American has

2) Borrow all the American can - local or sovereignty

3) Print all the money - rob by inflation

4) Austerity measures - taxes and taxes.

*Do you know that it is cheaper to produce goods overseas like in China (10% tax and lower labor cost) than in America (30% tax).


So, how a Keynesian settle a recession:

1) Cut spending

2) Austerity measures - Hair-cut for debtors, with payment by tax-payer money.

3) Transference of Wealth from the "Have" to "Have-not"

4) The "Magic Printing Press"

*In 1929, the US President did all three above except number 4 and still failed. The great depression, only settle after 10 great years and World War II.

*In 2008, Barack Obama did the number 4 and succeeded to treat the symptoms but not the diseases with printing trillions of dollars.

*By 2023, Trump would probably need to do number 4 and treat the symptoms again with the printing of quadrillion dollars before bringing a dollar to oblivion and to its knee. Why is this so?


Comments:

This is because Stagflation and cost-push inflation will push nearly everyone (99%)  out of money, dried their saving and everyone will be in need of money (like oxygen for survival) due to Medicaid and bankruptcy will be a common word around - "spreading like wild-fire", leading to worldwide depression and "multiplier-effect" of the depression will lead eventually  to deflation and most sellers had no choice but had to do the most sensible thing, which is, to sell cheaply their goods or face bankruptcy. So, deflation set in and a hard time for everybody except if you diversify your asset class.

Then Trump would blow his Trumpet and print Quadrillion money leading to "Hyperinflation"

So, the only way to survive this eventual catastrophe is something of everything - "ground, grab, gasoline, gun, and gold."

"Fate favor those who are prepared."

Yours Sincerely,

Dr Lion.

Preparing for The North Korea Crisis Dilemma

The North Korea crisis can bring out nuclear war and eventually a nuclear disaster and a nuclear fall-out.


If war were to eventually happen, the further you are from the conflict zone - the better you are. This is because all the above 3 problems become less and less significant when you are further.


The only worrisome part is the nuclear fall-out which will eventually lead to "nuclear winter" or in other words ozone crashing down on earth, leading to blindness to all that come to its path. What's the use of all the wealth in the world, if we lost our ability to see the wonders of life.


However, that is beyond my comprehension. I would like to discuss the economic consequences.


If a nuclear war were to happen in North Korea. The war will be short, maybe a week and if the US really need to attack, they will attack first the military, communication, and air-base in North Korea. This would basically make North Korea paralyzed. There, will not be an "all-out" war with North Korea.

North Korea would retaliate by sacrificing South Korea, Japan and maybe Guam. A caveat here, Malaysia is within firing-range of North Korea missile and we have no defense to counter such offensives. So, pray that the inevitable does not happen, as North Korea is known to do a surprise attack on the unprepared.

A silver-lightning is that North Korea has only around 15 nuclear ICBM and he will definitely attack South Korea, Japan, and the Pacific. The most that North Korea will send here is only a normal ICBM. So, we should be more afraid of nuclear fallout and need to prepare our "hide-out"

So, back to investment. The stock market might drop 50 points consecutively for 5 days. Bring it down to its knees at 1500. This is an opportunity for us to buy undervalued stock. Always remember our duty in stock-market is only to convert "graphite to diamonds." It's, okay to lose, but convert your high alpha stock to those battered beta stock.  Therefore, my sincere advice is to reduce "margin or contra" by 25 percent or if your stock is too low to be sold, buy a lot of "HSI put" that expire in 2018 as insurance. So, you can cushion the down-fall.


After a week, the stock will go up, but prepare for the "after-shock." This is my observation, based on the Iraq war. It will not be a protracted war. I might be right or wrong.  Unless Russia and China decided to join the frenzy and attack American.

That will need "parallel economies" to deal with...but basically, it will still be safe to have the basic necessity of life prepared - ground, grab, gasoline, gun, and gold.


Sir Winston Churchill, sum it best "The more we delve to the past, the more we can predict the future!"     


After that, a new set of economics will prevail in the Pacific and the world over.


"Faith favored those who are prepared"

Good Luck! Amigo!

Yours sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

Surviving the "Everything Collapse" Environment.

If "Everything bubble" were to collapse eventually. What will we do?


Everything bubble:

1) Derivatives market - 500 Trillion.

2) Sovereign debt crisis - 200 Trillion.

3) Housing market - more than 100 Trillion.

4) Stock market - more than 100 Trillion.

5) Credit Card bubble - more than 100 Trillion

6) Automobile bubble - more than 100 Trillion.

7)Cryptocurrency bubble - more than 1 Trillion


Caveat: "We have run out of people to borrow! and the only way out is to print our currency to oblivion."


If this were to happen and it will happen eventually, everyone will have a very hard time, making 1929 or 2008 - pale in comparison.

But, is there a way to build a "Financial Ark" and prepare us for the "Perfect Storm."

Yes, there is hope - "Faith favored those who are prepared."



Basically, I will go to the same basic "Something of Everything" and "the leanest will survive best!"


So, what is the something?

Robert Kiyosaki - sum it best "Ground, Grab, Gasoline, Gun and Gold." Which in other words the necessity to survive in an eventual crisis.

 
Its the same with investment. Invest in all these categories.

 1) Physical - Gold and silver (mobile and valuable)

2) Institutional - Stock of property and preferably "up-stream" food company which is plantation (a food commodity). Peter Lynch, sum it best "Put your money, where your food is"

3) Cash - Preferably cash in local and foreign denominations, in case of emergency.

4) A hide-out - look-out for your favorite "hide-out" and prepare all the necessary.

5) Pray - You really need to pray for being alive.

6) Attitude - Think and act rationally.


Good Luck! Amigo!


Yours Sincerely,

Dr. Lion.
 

"Paranoid Investor" is the best investor strategy ever existed.

What is paranoid?


Paranoid means you are afraid of everything.


You are afraid of dying, losing out to competitor...etc.


Tom Peter, sum it best in his book..."In Search of Excellent." - "Only the Paranoid Survive." Do look upon the book, a classical book on management and marketing.


This philosophy is used by the greatest thinker of our time - Jack Welch, to bring General Electric founded by "Thomas Alva Edison" to a greater height, imagine GE as a mammoth "sun-setting" enterprise, still being able to chuck up, more than 10 percent growth a year under him.


In fact, Warren Buffet, the greatest investor ever alive, used such a philosophy. He has his rule of investment.

Buffet success rule:

Rule 1: Never lose money

Rule 2: If u disagree with me, refer again rule number 1.



Yup, I am a paranoid investor. So, I will have my rules for investing.

Investing means trading. So, I will have my buying and selling rules.



My buying rules or more accurately my buying indicator would be as follow. I need a lot of margin of safety.


So, my Buying Indicator is:


A) Fundamental:

1) I need a profitable company (the more the better) - preferably on the uptrend. "Dead meat attract no flies."

2) I need a debt-free company or preferably debt is less than 50 percent of assets.

3) A high dividend company - dividend preferably more than 3 percent.

4) No or negligible receivable, creditor or goodwill - Neither a borrower or lender.

5) A company with PE (Price Earning ratio) less than 5 or maximum of 10.

6) A company with P/BV (Price to Book Value ratio) less than 0.5.    


B) Technical:

1) The stock needs to have increased in market strength (increase in price)  and breath (increase in volume)

2) Just breakout from the base-line or long-term resistant.


Comments:

1) If there is such stock, buy at all means and wait.

2) Cos, short term, the stock market is a voting machine. Long Term, the stock market is a weighing machine - Warren Buffet.

3) Its the sitting that makes the money - Jesse Livermore.


So, my Selling Indicator is:

1) My reason of buying is not there.

2) Going for better investment.


Always go for "big movements" and not "small movements." As "small changes in trend" is too difficult to decipher.


Do, you know that the derivatives market is now so big - "500 trillions." If u really, really need to gamble. Go, gamble there. 4 American biggest bank, gamble 25 percent of their assets there. If, you can profit by just 1 percent of the derivatives market, it will make u trillion and probably, the richest man on earth.


In conclusion "Its the end that makes the means"


Good Luck! Amigo!


Yours Sincerely,

Dr Lion.

Ultimate Investment: Dollar for Penny.

Everyone looks for the ultimate investment concepts.

The best investment concept is to buy "dollar for the price of a penny."

If this is your investment philosophy, you will never lose.

Why? This is because you have a big margin of safety.

Say, if you buy a new Proton Saga for 1K. Dollar for penny right? You will never lose, cause you can always sell above 5K. This show how true is the concept of "dollar for a penny" and the adherence "margin of safety" that comes with it.

So, everything that you do, any business, always go for "dollar for a penny" and sooner enough you will be rewarded, handsomely.

A lot of people say that "diamond is girl best friend" but, to be honest, "security" is what a woman and her parents look in her future husband - be it money, caring, patience and wits."

That's how Graham come out with the concept of "margin of safety" in his famous book "The Intelligent Investor."

Good Luck! Amigo!

Yours sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

How to Get Income? - Study, Get a Good Job and Get Paid.

Since time immemorial, We need income to survive, improve our well-being and as a storage of value.


Income is divided into 3:

1) Active Income - Income that you work hard for eg. being an employee

2) Passive Income - Income that comes from the leasing of an asset that you have eg. Money, Stocks, Machinery and Real Estates.

3) Royalty Income - Income that comes from producing a masterpiece that others want eg. songs, books, arts and infomercials.


The 3 above income is akin to planting paddy, planting strawberry and planting teas.

1) Paddy needs to be planted every season. That is active income.

2) Strawberry need to be planted every time the source dies. That is passive income.

3) While, teas only need tender care and pruning from generation to generation and bare in mind, since time immemorial "Tea worth more than Gold." That is royalty, income


So, plan wisely: "If we failed to plan, we planned to fail."


God Bless Us.


"Lord, Let your' will be done."


Good Luck! Amigo!


Yours sincerely,

Dr. Lion

The Economic Basis of "Good Assets"

Economics Theory is based on "Wealth of Nation" written by Adam Smith.

Adam Smith stated that "A thing is worth how much a buyer willing to pay."

Put it in laymen terms "The Price of a thing depends on the demand or more accurate the demand relative to supply."

So, "Good Assets is something with high demand and low or diminishing supply."

Therefore, we have it - "Ground, Grab and Gold."


A) The ground represents the house, land, and estates.


B) Grab represents food - "Anyone that control food, control the world."


C) Gold represents valuable.


However, it is very difficult to define valuable. If the valuable asset, is the only one available on earth, theoretically the value of the value is infinity.

So, we want valuable that is diminishing in supply and demand continue to increase: -

1) Gold, palladium, platinum, and silver.

A sure winner for the future.


 2) Precious stone

Second, valuable that will be diminishing in supply but have sentimental value due to its beauty, elegant as well as fashion.


3) Antiques.

While antique is value for its rarity and pristine condition at such old age. People would call it Vintage, Gothic or even National Treasure.


4) Arts

Arts are subjective in manner. As art is based on "the beauty and uniqueness of the eye of the beholder."


5) Ancient folk arts and amulets

This is similar to the ancients arts of the past generation.


Based on antiques and arts, the lifestyle, culture, and belief of a lost generation would show itself up for us to appreciate.

In the future, collectible' valuable' will appreciate a lot at the price. This is because most of the artefact would be lost, in time memorial and more people will be more appreciative of "Fine Arts" in the future. Hence, the existence of a museum of fine arts.

Like what owners of Patek Phillipe's watch always joke "Nobody owns a Patek Phillipe, we are the mere keeper of the next generation."

By the way, have you seen any antiques suffer a drop in price? Never. It only goes higher and higher and being sold only when someone is in need of money or fail to appreciate the value of it.   

Everyone must realize that our past is our teacher, that guide us, to a better tomorrow.

Winston Churchill sum it best "the more we delve into the past, the more we can see the future."

Good Luck! Amigo!

Sincerely,

Dr Lion. 

Rich Man's Dilemma in Economics: New Equilibrium during Disaster.

In Economic, some of the most important components are Aggregate Demand (AD) and Aggregate Supply (AS).


Why?



It determines the equilibrium point under normal conditions or "ceteris paribus."



Say, if an economic or a humanitarian disaster were to occur, this would definitely change the status quo of "ceteris paribus" and special sets of economic rules sets in such as parallel economies.

Say, you are a rich man with USD 100 million. But, suddenly an economic disaster occurs. Will u still be worth 100 million? Most probably no.


This is because your buying power will deteriorate as aggregate supply (AS) will be reduced drastically as well as there is no demand for USD and you need to pay up the price which is most of the time higher than the loss of volume of supply on normal curve of AS (due to hoarding nature of supplier) and reduction in demand on normal curve of aggregate demand (AD) as "AD have an inverse relationship between price and quantity demanded".

That's how currency or fiat money comes into oblivion in a crisis.


This causes your buying power to diminished rapidly leading to the acronym "selling a dollar for pennies." If you are definitely in need of resources in a crisis - Ground, Grab, Gas, Guns, and Gold.

So, make sure you are well diversified in all the five asset class stated above during a crisis and profit from it.


Avoid, from having to "sell dollars for pennies" and instead profit from it, in an eventual disaster.


As the saying goes "Anyone with excess is always an investor - whether he or she realized and make good use of it"


"Faith favors those who are prepared."

Good Luck! Amigo!

Yours sincerely,

Dr. Lion.

Theory of Reflexivity

Do you know that whatever small things that we do, somehow or another we can change the world?

Here are 2 examples:

1) Alexander Flemings's discovery of Penicillin after WW1  saved millions of life in WW2.

2) The flipping of the wings of a butterfly can cause a tornado. (Any weatherman are aware of such strange phenomena)


Therefore, whatever we do will be reflected in the community, that we lived and the earth, somehow or another.


"That's the basis of Theory of Reflexivity."

The theory said that "The results of the equation change when new variables were added to the equations"


That's why we must be receptive to new pieces of information, new changes and adapt as well as transform to be ahead of the pack and always try to be the "trend-setter" and not the "trend-follower"


The following scenarios show how important "response time" is for us to transforms and adopt.

1) Seconds: Decisions during a fire in a building.

2) Minutes: A stock transaction or treating patients during an emergency.

3) Hour: Business Evaluation for tenders.

4) Day: A new business opportunity or affiliates.

5) Month: Changing business or consumer trend.

6) Year: Decision on our personal health and wealth.


"The only constant is Change"

Good Luck! Amigo!

Sincerely,

Dr. Lion      

Stages of Learning a New Skill

Human need to be taught by learning or experience to be competent in a certain subject matter.

Learning take shape through these 4 stages:

1) Dunno what we dunno - we really at odd with something that is totally new.

2) Know what we dunno - know that we are ignorant and needs help

3) Know what we know - we are becoming competent and stored in our short term memory

4) Dunno what we know - we are becoming expert and can identify that something is wrong by a certain pattern that repeats itself, we develop a hunch or gut feeling from our stored long term memory.

"That's why an experienced businessman always have the hunch that something is wrong and walk out from the deal before something turn nasty and will "go for the jugular" if he know that his "killer instinct" in a deal is right."

Good Luck Amigo!

Sincerely,
Dr Lion

The Next Era of Human Revolution

Revolution means something that changes mankind - thinking, concepts and lifestyles forever.

Archimedes always joke "If he had enough leverage, he can move the world."
True, from the sense of invention that changes the world forever.

1) Human starts with stone age - tool revolution.

2) Metal Revolution - metal tool.

3) Renaissance age - artistic and radical thinking as well as philosophy.

4) Agricultural age - food for the masses, with surplus bought to the marketplace for a profit.

5)Industrial revolution - creating mechanical devices at a cheaper cost with the concept of  "division of labor"

6)Electrical revolution - Light bulbs allowing us to work till twilight.

7)Automobile revolution - mobility improve

8)Airplane revolution - anyone can fly

9)Computer revolution - a machine that can store information

10)Internet revolution - communication faster and cheaper

11)Robotic revolution - cheaper and more efficient way of doing a task

12)Artificial Intelligent revolution - robots that are able to think and decide without emotion attached

13)Human capital revolution - Knowledge-Based Economy.

14)More revolution to come - space revolution, deep sea revolution, quantum physics revolution?


"A lot of People have profited and fortune was made from the first 9 revolutions. Are we ready for the future revolution - embrace the internet, robotics, A.I. and human capital revolution?................ for the betterment of yourself, family, society and finally mankind."

Good Luck Amigo

Sincerely,
Dr Lion 

Competition between Wealth, Skill and Knowledge for the "Supreme Title of Everlasting Success."

In the time before time, lived three different kings with utmost wealth, skill and knowledge.

We will call them Mr. Wealth, Mr. Skill and Mr. Knowledge.

All three of them would like to fight for the title of Mr. Everlasting Success.

So, they decided to hold a competition to see who is most successful in their generation, their future generation and their descendants at the end of time.

In the first generation, Mr. Wealth will be the most successful, because he controls all the wealth. He had all the resources and all those with skill and knowledge works for him.

In the second generation, the transference of wealth occurs from Mr. Wealth's family to those with skill, but, less to those with knowledge. So, the skillful craftsman rules and compiled their wealth and become an advisor to Mr. Wealth. While those in knowledge also gained but to a limited extent.

At the end of time, its a time of war and turbulence. Money get you nowhere. So, Mr. Wealth money was transferred to Mr. Skill's and Mr. Knowledge's family and the rest stored in a safe vault. Mr. Skill's children, on the other hand, developed great skills but their ability is limited to the skill that they have been taught and trained with (like father like son). However, Mr. Knowledge's children, on the other hand, thrive very very wealth cos they are prepared to adapt, to change and be prepared at the first sign of trouble.

Therefore, you see we need money to make money. But, eventually, is those with the knowledge that is able to adapt to the wave of change. Change is inevitable in this new border-less world - be it business, occupation, learning or even consumerism - embrace it with brave, dignity, confident and most importantly have faith in our mighty creator.

 "Which one you choose to the citadel of wealth - Wealth? Skill? Knowledge?"

Be My guest.

Good Luck! Amigo!

Sincerely,
Dr. Lion

The Allure of a Million Dollar - The Baby Steps to Investments

Say, I tell you I have a very great investment to invest - Mining Uranium in Antartica!

If I were to ask you for a million dollar. You will say are you mad? Where do I have such amount of money?

If I were to ask you for a hundred thousand, you will be more receptive, but,  you will still say that will be too much of an asking.

If I were to ask you for ten thousand, then, you are ready to listen. You will ask me what's the deal?

If I were to ask you for a thousand. You will say u feel right to invest, with this amount of money and don't mind losing it all.


We always lose, why?

We always like to go for the Giants' steps to investments and not slow and steady.

We should always go for the baby steps instead,  a few drops at a time make the mighty ocean.

Lets me prove it to you mathematically how 1 million is possible mathematically.

Say, your final objective or destination is to profit with a million.

You have a few options as follows:

1) Get a 1 million dollar profit deal.

2) Get a 10 times a hundred thousand dollars profit deals

3) Get 100 times a ten thousand dollars profit deals

4) Get 1000 times a thousand dollars profit deals

5) Get 10000 times a hundred dollars profit deals

6) Get 100000 times a ten dollars profit deals

7) Get 1000000 times a one dollar profit deals

Choose the million dollars deal that suits you or maybe the next one dollar profit that will bring you the next million.

"So, don't look down upon the next penny that is lying on the floor, it can be the next billion in the making" - Warren Buffet.

Hope this helps you in your citadel of wealth!

Good luck! Amigo!

Sincerely,
Dr. Lion